Conservative win in local borough predicted

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Think tank say Tory gain of Hammersmith and Fulham guaranteed

A report on the forthcoming Borough elections has predicted that the Conservatives are set to regain control of Hammersmith and Fulham. It claims David Cameron's style of politics and its appeal to middle class voters in the area being decisive and thus 'guarantees' a win for his party.

The report is by the London Communications Agency (LCA), a specialist communications consultancy focusing on London and London issues, and Tony Travers of the London School of Economics (LSE). The predictions are based on 'a combination of top-line analysis of each borough, current national political trends, and gut instinct.'

London’s 32 boroughs are currently controlled by Labour, with 15, the Conservatives with 8, the Liberal Democrats
with 3 and 6 are in No Overall Control (NOC). The report predicts that Labour will end with only 10 boroughs and the Conservatives will win six on top of the eight they already control. LCA have committed to pay £250 to St. Mungo's Hospital for each borough prediction that they get wrong.

The Conservatives have only taken control of Hammersmith and Fulham once in the last 40 years despite doing relatively well in parliamentary elections. In the past three contests however, the party has narrowed the Labour lead taking it down to only 12 in 2002, of which many are wafer thin majorities. The victory by Greg Hands in the general election is seen as indicating the trend of voting and the issue of health services in the borough is also likely to be a factor. The report names Addison, Fulham Broadway, Fulham Reach, North End, Ravenscourt Park and Sands End wards as providing likely gains for the Tories.

However, the Labour party is unlikely to give up the borough without a fight. The Council was rated 'excellent' by the Audit Commission and they have recently pledged to freeze Council Tax for three years. It is expected that the borough will be a key battleground with all the major party leaders visiting the area before polling day.

The report highlights a trend for voters in London to be 'anti-incumbent' with a tendency to vote against the party in power nationally. They say this factor alone will mean a reduction in the number of Labour controlled Councils.

Another factor has been the ongoing reduction in turnout at elections. In 1990 the turnout was 46%, in 1998 it was 34.6% and by 2002 it had dropped to 31.6%. The Government has recently launched a campaign to encourage the estimated 500,000 unregistered London residents to sign up, but if they do and don’t vote then the percentage turnout will be even lower.

David Cameron would have a very good chance of winning the next election if he could win the 'bell weather' borough of Ealing which has traditionally been controlled by the party that goes onto win the next General Election. One factor that could help the Conservatives, according to the report, is their more convincing approach to attraction ethnic minority votes. The Tories have made a much greater effort to field candidates that reflect more closely the areas they are likely to represent particularly in West London.

The LCA describes the elections as the most important for at least 20 years and says the outcome will send out important signals for the main parties in the next general election.

April 13, 2006