Three Way Contest Developing in Ealing Central and Acton
Lib Dem resurgence could reduce Rupa Huq's majority
Flavible projection for next general election
The latest polling analysis for the Ealing Central and Acton constituency is pointing to a three way contest developing for the seat.
Having previously held the constituency with a tiny majority, Labour's Rupa Huq romped home with a massive share of the vote winning nearly 60% of those cast in the general election in 2017.
However, recent analysis by research firm Flavible is suggesting that the next election will be a much more closely fought affair. Flavible use polling data from YouGov and apply demographic information for individual constituencies to predict the share of the vote by party.
Rupa Huq MP
For the next election, which is widely believed to be set to take place before the end of the year, Labour's share of the vote falls to 35% with the Lib Dems seeing their vote rise by over 20 percentage points from 5.6% to 28% The Conservatives decline by 10 percentage points to 24% with much of that fall seemingly down to support switching to the Brexit party who did not contest the seat last time.
However, the Conservatives, who are to be represented by Julian Gallant, might feel they have a chance if they can arrange an electoral pact with the Brexit Party as their combined predicted vote would be similar to Labour's.
The Liberal Democrats will have high hopes of winning in the constituency which voted 72% to Remain during the EU Referendum. Last time out senior members of the party urged their members to vote for Rupa Huq rather than their own candidate Jon Ball in order to ensure the constituency returned a Remain supporting MP.
Similar analysis by Electoral Calculus puts Rupa Huq further ahead and the Conservatives in second place.
Rupa Huq commented, "I never take anything for granted but was heartened to see my majority increase 50 fold between 2015 and 2017. I will be continuing with no let-up until the day the election takes place whenever it is, serving my constituents in Ealing, Acton and Chiswick.
"Since we won the seat that in my childhood was always Tory from the Conservative party in 2015, sadly we have seen that party transmogrify from a broad church welcoming of the one nation/caring tendency into a narrow UKIP Brexit-at-any-cost outfit which John Major and Michael Hestletine are at odds with, Kenneth Clarke was kicked out of and even my childhood MP George Young has walked out of.
"I hope that steadfastly campaigning for remain from voting against the Article 50 trigger to helping internally to move the Labour party position to one of a peoples vote in every circumstance will stand me in good stead as the remainer most likely to win. "
The Liberal Democrat candiate for the seat Sonul Badiani-Hamment said, '' I’m delighted to see national polling start to show what we know to be true in Ealing and Acton: the LibDems can win, you can demand better than Johnson’s and Corbyn'’ Brexit and the two party political system is over."
The polling assumes that the Greens will stand this time having stood down for the last election and they obtained 3% of the predicted vote.
Rupa Huq concludes, "Polls are always interesting but the only poll that actually matters is the actual one on the day – twice they have predicted I wouldn’t win and Ealing Labour have twice defied them. "
Conservative candidate Julian Gallant said: ''
An election is looming and we are going to show that it’s only the Conservatives who can grip the big issues. I was a Remain voter and campaigner but I accepted the 2016 result and now I know that a good future relationship with European nations can only be built after the UK has left the EU. We can’t stay where we are now. We’ll be working hard to win this seat back and get a Conservative government that governs for everyone.''
October 9, 2019