Fulham's Property Prices Steady Amidst Brexit Uncertainty

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Average price rises and agent predicts 'desirability' set to continue

After a chilly start to 2016, Fulham's property market showed signs of warming up, with the overall average property price showing a small increase in the second quarter.

The average rose to £1,104,682, up a modest 1.8% on the previous quarter's average of £1,078,996.

However, a closer look at the figures shows that this rise is almost entirely due to the fact that between April and June, three semi-detached homes changed hands, with an average price of £2,724,272. During the previous three months, just one semi-detached house was sold, priced just £843,500.

There were falls in the average prices of both terraced houses - down 3.8% to £1,750,506 - and flats - down 4.3% to £724,829.

This mixed picture is perhaps not surprising as it reflects a period of uncertainty in the weeks leading up to the Brexit Referendum.

As the referendum took place on June 23, these figures don't tell us anything about post-Brexit trends.

Josh Woodfin of local estate agent Brik says the general consensus among insiders may be that over the next six months, activity in the market is likely to soften with small property price falls a possibility.

However, he adds: " Would-be buyers hoping for prices to drop by anywhere close to 18% as predicted by the former chancellor, George Osborne, may be in for a long wait. That is because there is an inherent undersupply of housing in London and it is difficult to see what would trigger large price falls in the longer term while this remains the case.

" Couple this with the outstanding feel good factor of Britain’s recent sporting achievements - Murray winning Wimbledon, Chris Froome winning the Tour De France and of course the impressive results in the Olympics - and it’s easy to see how this reflects positively on how Great Britain in general is perceived internationally.

" Surely this can only add to the desirability, and price, of London property in the future."

Across the whole of London Prices rose by 12.6% over the twelve months to June bringing the average price up to £472,204. Prices rose marginally during the month of June.

For the UK as a whole there was an annual price increase of 8.7% which takes the average property value to £213,927.

Following a strong increase in sales in March, UK home sales fell by 55.4% in April 2016, recovering slightly in May and June 2016. The swings in volume are believed to be primarily due to Stamp Duty changes. This was mirrored in London where 14,783 sales were recorded during March but this fell to 4,368 in April.

The latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has concluded that housing market activity has softened with sales and interest from new buyers continuing to wane. They say sales and enquiries continue to display a negative trend in London - although expectations point to a more stable picture in the coming months. Stock levels in the capital are at record lows and new instructions have declined markedly. Across London, 42% more surveyors reported a fall in transactions; the fifth month of decline.

The RICS say that this reflects a continuation of a trend that started in March following the implementation of the tax surcharge on investment purchases. Anecdotal reports provided by contributors to their survey suggest both the tax change and the ongoing fall-out from the EU referendum are contributing to the current mood in the market. However, looking a little further out, London has seen a notable turnaround in sentiment for the year ahead, as confidence towards the outlook for transactions climbed to a seven month high.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, commented: “The housing market is currently balancing a raft of somewhat mixed economic news alongside the latest policy measures announced by the Bank of England, which have already begun to lower cost of mortgage finance. Against this backdrop, it is not altogether surprising that near term activity measures remain relatively flat. However the rebound in the key twelve month indicators in the July survey suggest that confidence remains more resilient than might have been anticipated.“

A detailed listing of properties sold recently in the area will be appearing in a forthcoming edition of the Fulham newsletter.

Fulham Property Prices (April - June 2016)
Area	Semi-det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flat/ mais	Sales	Overall ave	Total sales
SW6 1	0	0	0	0	662083	12	662083	12
SW6 2	0	0	1439760	9	797801	24	972881	33
SW6 3	0	0	2185463	6	1042840	5	1666089	11
SW6 4	0	0	2156889	9	558481	8	1404697	17
SW6 5	2724272	3	2515000	3	671900	10	1402301	16
SW6 6	0	0	1567956	8	753257	18	1003934	26
SW6 7	0	0	1359273	11	636250	14	954380	25
Total	2724272	3	1750506	46	724829	91	1104682	140
Change over quarter			-3.2%	-41.0%	-4.3%	-52.6%	1.8%	-48.9%
Change over year			1.8%	-40.3%	-15.4%	-51.9%	-2.3%	-48.1%
Change over three years			19.3%	-60.3%	17.5%	-54.0%	18.6%	-55.6%
Change over five years			44.9%	-58.2%	41.8%	-51.6%	40.0%	-53.8%
Change over ten years			125.0%	-76.8%	85.6%	-70.0%	99.2%	-72.5%

 

September 23, 2016