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Not celebrating yet Michael but looking forward to the entertainment to come. Actually I find myself quite optimistic about the short term. Don't get me wrong, Trump is a truly odious individual and anybody who sees his re-election as something desirable has lost all connection with reality. However, for those of us who watch Saudi oil-production you will have noticed they started to ramp this up in December which will soon start to feed through to pump prices. I know how you hate and unevidenced conspiracy theories but I think it is highly likely that the cutting of production over the last four years which drove inflation under Biden will come to an end and this has been done at the urging of Trump.Biden annoyed the Saudis for the firm line he took on them chopping up Adnan Khashoggi and revealing the links MBS had to the crime. Combined with his refusal to back their genocidal actions in Yemen they were happy to follow Jared Kushner's advice on how they could undermine Biden and support Trump.Lower oil prices will have two main effects - firstly inflation will fall assuming the new administration doesn't go through with the loopy tariff policies and so will interest rates. Secondly Putin's teetering economy will be brought closer to the brink of collapse (interesting in this regard how the Ukrainians have been very focused on oil infrastructure over the last few months). His army won't fight if it isn't paid so we may see a sudden and decisive end to the war which will also be good news for inflation and global growth. This of course will be nothing to do with Trump but he will claim credit for it.Assuming he doesn't screw up the Gaza deal and Netanyahu is out of power in the next few months, we may be living in a much safer world by spring time.

Francis Rowe ● 6d