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“If your families safety was paramount you’d insist they take public transport rather than drive them anywhere.”With every utterance you come across as being more and more silly, Tom. You know very well that we are debating safety for drivers and passengers of SUVs versus small, lighter cheap cars but you are now so desperate that you bring public transport into the equation. Very silly as public transport has not been part of this thread. Buses and other public transport is an entirely different subject but for the record I can confirm that our family’s quest for knowledge and our spirit of adventure, excitement, exploration and travel precludes us from using public transport for remote places we explore in Cornwall, Devon, Northumberland, Scotland and across Europe. Perhaps when we are old and decrepit we’ll have to resort to taking a smelly, germ invested, uncomfortable, bus and endure the stench of urine while being sheepled to overcrowded places we don’t want to go to, but I very much doubt we’ll lower our standards to endure that misery.  The next time you see a family in a safe SUV, have a look at the smiling happy faces and then when you see a bus try to find just a single passenger that doesn’t look totally miserable. Life is too short but you go ahead and enjoy your closeted, allegedly, safe life and I’ll enjoy mine knowing that I’m doing the best for my family’s safety while you may be content to risk your’s. PS. I took a train from Barnes to Kingston today ( first time I have tried it) and it was fine. Quite pleasant in fact. However, I decided to return to Richmond by bus (to try it out) and it was disgusting. Crowded, smelly, noisy and very, very slow. Not for me; never again. Much more pleasant, comfortable and stress free to go by car. The car is King.

Steve Taylor ● 43d

"As already proved, the deaths are negligible and there is no evidence to suggest that those deaths were specifically caused because of the vehicle size."No, you have offered no proof, just nonsensical arguments. The Economist article shows the total number of deaths in a collision increases dramatically as the mass of the largest vehicle increases. But correlation in statistics does not equal causation. Here the laws of physics provide a clear causal relationship - as the mass of cars becomes larger, their energy increases proportionately, and the larger energy released in a collision will increase the risk of a fatality. There is therefore a clear causal link between the higher risk of fatalities seen in a collision and vehicle mass. You even accepted this yourself when you compared the relative risks of being in a Fiat 500 compared to a much heavier vehicle!"They could have been caused by driver negligence / inexperience drunk driving etc or by pedestrian negligence, lack of concentration, stupidity etc."Despite the rational argument above, which is generally accepted as being the most likely cause, let's consider if you might be correct. That would mean that drivers who drive such large cars are more likely to be negligent or drunk. Your argument is that the cars are no less safe, but their drivers tend to be positively dangerous. That's a useful identification, as it means restricting such cars will greatly benefit the safety of everyone else.Either way you lose, Steve, whether you accept the rational argument that larger cars tend to be more dangerous or stick with your claim that their drivers tend to be more dangerous. "Hence my view that every polluting vehicle should be taken off the road."That's every motor vehicle, Steve, whether it's diesel, petrol or electric. Electric vehicles, because of their larger mass, release more fine tyre particulates. They do pollute less than petrol and diesel, but they still pollute. So if "every polluting vehicle should be taken off the road", that's the end of the motor vehicle.

Tom Pike ● 44d

"Might it not also be true that an injury that resulted in a fatality in 2002 would not necessarily result in a fatality in 2022 due to advances in medical treatment, imaging and hence better outcomes?"

The proportion of pedestrians killed in a collision varies, but it has certainly not steadily reduced over time. In 2004 1.92% of collision resulted in a fatality. In 2022 it was 1.99%.

"Precisely. Cars are more sophisticated, safer, smart braking systems etc etc. hence we have seen both fatalities and serious injuries to pedestrians HALVE between 2004 and 2022 despite people walking more."

The rate of pedestrian injury collisions has dropped, but if you're hit by a larger-engined cars your risk of being killed is still significantly higher, nearly 50% higher for a car over 2500 cc compared to below 1500 cc. And if improved car safety technology was the reason for these reduced death rates, then the people who most benefit should be those inside a car. The introduction of airbags, for example, has no effect on the injury and fatality rates for pedestrians and cyclists, just car occupants. But in fact car occupants have seen very little improvement in fatality rates in the last ten years compared to both pedestrians and cyclists. 

These improvements have therefore not come about mainly because of improved car safety technology, but because cars are going slower, especially in urban areas where most collisions with cyclists and pedestrians take place. The risk of pedestrian or cyclist death in a collision drops hugely as collision speeds are reduced, much faster than for car occupants. It's notable that while pedestrian and cyclist fatality rates have dropped by about a third over the last ten years, penalties for speeding have just about doubled. And the largest drop in pedestrian and cyclist fatalities has been in London, with the widespread introduction of 20 mph limits.

Tom Pike ● 46d

Tom, where do you get your figures for convictions as  “about 20% of the total of 1600 such deaths each year.” ?? In 2022,  385 pedestrians were killed by motorists in the UK. Most  motorists were not convicted.  The most common contributory factor was ‘pedestrian failed to look properly’ “Between 2004 and 2022 fatalities are down 43% at the same time when sales of SUVs increased substantially!!! “.  So Tom is quite wrong to assume SUVs are to blame. Also important to note that between 2021 and 2022, pedestrian traffic (distance walked) INCREASED by 7%.  By your theories you would expect to see more fatalities but this didn’t happen. Knocks the hell out of your assertion about SUVs causing more deaths. Young male drivers under the age of 25 are four times more likely to be involved in a car accident  involving pedestrians than drivers aged 25 or older.  Again - not your average SUV driver!! The 3 most common contributory factor assigned to pedestrians were ‘failed to look properly’ followed by ‘pedestrian careless, reckless or in a hurry’ and ‘failure to judge vehicle’s path or speed. Pedestrian traffic and reported casualtiesIn 2022, 385 pedestrians were killed in Great Britain“Between 2004 and 2022:* fatalities were down 43% from 671 to 385* serious injuries (adjusted) decreased by 42%* pedestrian traffic (distance walked) increased by 16%Averaged over the period 2018 to 2022:* an average of 8 pedestrians died and 109 were seriously injured (adjusted) per week in reported road collisions* a majority of pedestrian fatalities (57%) do not occur at or within 20m of a junction compared to 46% of all seriously injured (adjusted) casualties* nearly three in five (58%) of pedestrian fatalities were in collisions involving a single car* 29% of pedestrian fatalities occurred on rural roads compared to 12% of all pedestrian casualties* 58% of pedestrian killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties were male    * the most common contributory factor allocated to pedestrians in fatal or serious collisions (FSC) with another vehicle was ‘Pedestrian failed to look properly’. “You can hardly blame this on SUV drivers. Those KSI’s would have happened irrespective of whether the driver was operating a mini or a SUV.

Steve Taylor ● 47d

"For example if you take the trend from 2014-17 and project forward you could argue that 2023 should have been better than it was."Yes, we'd have a negative number of collision, which shows just how wrong it is to take a small period of data to try to make a spurious point!That's why I took the average number of casualties up to 2016 and then after, more than 100 in each case, to show that the reduction in the speed limit to 20 mph is linked to a significant reduction, 30%, in casualties. That's more than a 3 sigma reduction in statistical terms. This chimes with much larger datasets across all of London. As an aside, there's nothing "anomalous" about multiple people being injured in a single incident. It is indicates the higher risk of injury in certain collisions. The bottom line is that we can reject at this point on any statistical basis that C9 has led to a significantly larger number of casualties on the High Road. Although we are now seeing a reduction, it will indeed take a few more years to say with some statistical certainty that we've seen a drop.What we do know already is that C9 has led to a significantly higher number of cyclists on the High Road, now more than half the number of cars. And we have ample evidence from much larger datasets that such a modal shift will lead to lower number of casualties, as well as the lower pollution we're measuring on the High Road and improved health for more people. We should all be grateful that those hoping otherwise will be disappointed.

Tom Pike ● 51d

While any data that shows fewer people getting injured on our roads is to be welcomed, it would be best to not jump to unfounded conclusions based on these numbers.The overall trend for collisions has been down over this period with serious injuries dropping by 24% in London in 2023 compared to a baseline of 2010-2013 so many streets in the capital are at a 12 year low.The 2023 number for CHR does match this trend but it is a reversal of a worrying rise in the previous two years when C9 was operating (and other areas saw reductions due to the pandemic). However, this is really too small a data pool to make any firm conclusions from.C9 needs to be looked at in its entirety and it is not clear whether these numbers include King Street where there was an alarming rise in casualties earlier in the operation of the cycleway. I haven’t heard any more recent updates and assume the number of collisions has declined but it would be complacent to assume that they will stay low just because there has been a single year with relatively few serious injuries.That said the fall to the lowest level of cyclist casualties on CHR for over a decade at a time when the number of cyclists risen significantly has to be taken as a very positive sign that C9 has helped to make the road safer for cyclists even if that can’t be said for King Street.But if Chiswick High Road is getting safer, the main reason is likely to be the reduced number of motor vehicles using it as progress along it is slower. However, this isn’t necessarily a positive if that traffic has just been displaced elsewhere (Chiswick Lane, Bath Road) and those roads have become more dangerous.As far as I can see, these numbers, while encouraging, aren’t the basis make categorical claims about C9 either positive or negative but that isn’t going to stop people doing so.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 52d