Forum Topic

The number of child Covid cases is probably dramatically understated because younger age groups are usually asymptomatic. Essentially what has happened is that the virus has been allowed to run riot in schools. The deaths and the cases of Long Covid will have been increased by this but now millions of children have immunity. Deaths and Long Covid cases were inevitable anyway but would have taken longer to appear.In the absence of a vaccination programme for younger children unless you were always going to get a big increase in infections but by allowing it to happen before the cold weather set in the peak in infections will hopefully be levelled out and the NHS will hopefully have sufficient capacity.There is still time for this to all go wrong and it is not certain that the government hasn't miscalculated. Johnson certainly seems to be laying the ground for blaming any winter spike on Covid 'blowing in' from Europe, which is preposterous as their rates remain lower than ours. He seems to be anticipating that, having suppressed their virus rates over summer and autumn, they will be more vulnerable than us to a big increase so he is preparing to say any lockdown measures are due to Europe.On the other hand if the strategy works and we don't see a big winter spike he will be taking credit for the success which, given how ineptly he handled things previously will be a falsehood. However, if it works somebody will deserve a thank you from us all for making hard decisions and getting them right.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 863d

Jeremy Parkinson asked" is it time to consider this government might actually have done something right?"The rolling average for deaths *per day* in the UK is now around 166.To repeat 166.So how does that compare to other countries ? Not very well I'd imagine.Disregard all the other numbers the only question to ask surely is how does this compare with previous rolling averages here in the UK.I personally have already regarded "case" numbers as potentially highly misleading both nationally and for international comparisons. As they depend on the numbers tested and the accuracy of the tests. As to the latterand what they actually indicate its possible towrite a book. Satisfying bureaucratic requirementsand the tests actually meaning anything are maybe two different things. Newspapaper headline this morning "Germany has recorded the highest number of cases since the start of the pandemic"And ?How soon did they start testing and how many peopledid they test ?There are all sorts of reasons why hospitalisationfigures need to be treated with caution as well IMO.But deaths ? All deaths are of people testing positivewithin the previous 28 days of whatever cause but the point is *the criteria have never changed".At one point the rolling average of Deaths in the UK was down to single figures. And the weather can't be cited as its still relatively warmWhen its down to single figures again month on month I'll assume its on the wane *despite* the best efforts of the Govt. But will still wear a respirator in shops.    michael adams

Michael Adams ● 864d