Forum Topic

Agree with Justin. Firstly comparing September 2020 with September 2019 is comparing apples and oranges in the extreme. Sept 2020 saw the rule of 6 introduced, many bars and restaurants still closed, most people WFH, no cultural events (cinemas, theatres) and all sports stadiums empty).  Most important, LHR, which is a major driver of traffic through W4, was at 10% of normal capacity.So first point, we have no idea what the new normal traffic patterns will look like. It is most likely that the remaining 'through routes' such as Burlignton Lane and Sutton Court Rd will see much more traffic. The A316 and Hogarth will be even bigger choke points. So I am sure its lovely for some residents, but worse for a sizable minority. For the proponents of LTNs, the answer is 'tough' we dont live on these streets. We also know that businesses and local residents face major challenges with the restrictions on Hargington Road and SoTG, which have turned them into nice little private roads for a small number of residents. These schemes could be improved to benefit all of GP residents, but Michael will not hear of that. He is also happy for GP residents, visitors and trades people coming up from the west and south west to follow the signed route along Barrowgate Road (a residential road) to access GP via SCR, while keeping SoTG traffic free. Winners and losers. So in summary, if you close a road to traffic, you get less traffic. Not sure why Michael needed to write a whole article to tell us that. It does not address where the traffic goes, how the residents of the roads that Michael and his chums dont live on feel about more traffic, noise and pollution. We have 30 years of LTNs and related schemes in London, but the data shows miles travelled by vehicles as increased steadily, mainly in last few years. At the same time, bus speeds continue to fall. So traffic evaporation is a fantasy spread by the wealthy middle classes who dont care where traffic goes.

Paul Green ● 2082d

Justin,Happy to address your points on the data and conclusions ( I'll be ignoring Paul Green's typically rambling rant).You say that in your view there are 'many. many problems with the data analysis'.  Can you list them?The article mentions that further surveys are needed to assess longer term impact, and the effectivenesss of the camera-based measures at School Streets locations, Hartington and Thames.Even if the camera-based methods turn out to be ineffective or impractical, I believe there is enough evidence that the measures at Harvard Hill and Staveley are effective and could be retained. The temporary barriers could be replaced by something permanent and more aesthetically pleasing like planters, trees, greenery.On the point about where the traffic has gone, as long as it has not been disproportionately displaced to other minor roads within the area, then this doesn't matter.  The data showed that any localised displacement was small compared to the previous volume of through traffic.  Future surveys will show if any localised displacement decreases with enforcement, GPS maps being updated etc.If the traffic has gone back to the A316 and the A4, then this is where it should be in the first place. In the long term, there are so many different factors could affect traffic (ULEZ, a boundary charge, etc) that it is impossible to pick out the impact of a change like a thousand fewer cars on Harvard Hill as this is just in the noise.Best to go back to the objectives which are to reduce car trips and improve areas for sustainable transport, walking and cycling.

Michael Robinson ● 2082d

Michael, a few things. You say:'If the traffic has gone back to the A316 and the A4, then this is where it should be in the first place'.This depends on what the traffic is. Whilst I agree through traffic should ideally stay on main routes, the problem these are heavily congested. There has been no attempt by TFL to model these traffic flows and adjust light phases at key junctions to adjust and accomodate these. Also the difficulty is defining what is and is not through traffic. Once you leave your own road, then you (or a visitor, tradesperson or delivery driver) become 'through traffic' for someone else.It would be very easy to adjust the SotG and Hartington Road schemes to benefit all GP residents, rather than a tiny handful. But in your self appointed guardian role, you have refused to countenance any of all changes.'as long as it has not been disproportionately displaced to other minor roads within the area, then this doesn't matter'.The schemes divert traffic onto a handful of local roads, who suffer more traffic, pollution and noise. But as long as you dont live on those streets, its OK. Why is it OK to close SoTG but then route even more traffic onto the officially sanctioned rat run that is Barrowgate Road? What is your definition of a minor road? I am sure it is you or one of you chums last year that claimed official road designations are irrelevant.'Future surveys will show if any localised displacement decreases with enforcement'. Again, we need London wide data to show the impact of all these schemes. We need to avoid creating pollution and noise ghettos, which disproportionately impact lower income groups in favour of wealthy middle class WFH professionals. Know any of those Michael?'he objectives which are to reduce car trips and improve areas for sustainable transport, walking and cycling'. No doubt worthy but exactly whose objectives are these and who appointed you as the guardian and enforcer of these. Public mass transport is the ultimate sustainable transport, but is the big loser from CS9, as are all those that use it. Why are you still silent on the mass Brentford stadium parking in W4, which completely stands against these stated principles. Curious...Michael, please have the courage and decency to address my points. less of the personal insults too. As a final point, teh real problem with the cumulative effect of all these road closures is that when there is a problem, there is nowhere for traffic to go. We recently had Acton Lane, Dukes Av, SCR and then Stamford Brook Rd closed for repairs. In normal time W4 would have been a car park. Except of course no impact for you and your chums, and a disaster for bus users. Still, you guys are fine.

Paul Green ● 2082d

This very comprehensive and detailed dive in to the limited data that is available does confirm that blocking of roads and fining people for using them will reduce traffic on them. As this is something that we might have guessed before the schemes were implemented I'm not sure what Michael's hard work has added to the debate. The question as to whether these schemes have reduced traffic overall remains unanswered. They can only have done so if traffic has evaporated rather than simply been displaced. This is a tricky one to answer at the best of times but with lockdown in operation it can't be assumed changes in traffic patterns at a local level are due to one particular cause. What I have noticed recently is that coming into North Chiswick from the west either on the A4 or the A316 my SatNav has been directing me towards the North Circular and then round by Gunnersbury Lane. This means a lengthy detour and a trip along Bollo Lane, the residential part of which was more blighted by traffic than Staveley Road ever was. This leads me to think that traffic is being displaced rather than evaporating and there is little or no net gain in traffic reduction in residential areas overall.  The feedback on these schemes on the Commonplace website seems to suggest that people living in the Grove Park area are against them by quite a large majority. If the beneficiaries of reduced traffic in their area aren't supportive this suggests that more attention should be place on the interests of people in Acton Green and the Glebe Estate who may not be aware that increased traffic through their area is due to the South Chiswick scheme. The latter seems to be suffering due to an increase flow of cars up through Devonshire Road from the Hogarth Roundabout  which formerly had been going up Sutton Court Road.


Andrew OSullivan ● 2081d

Thanks for the comments Andrew.I could dig up opinions from some people who claimed that the measures would increase traffic in the area because of detours made by residents.  They didn't appreciate how small residential traffic is compared to through traffic.  The data does demonstrate these opinions weren't correct.The measures don't have the objective of reducing overall traffic (by that I mean traffic both within and outside the S Chiswick area defined by this scheme).  They may reduce overall traffic, but that isn't the objective.  The objective is to improve condifions for walking and cycling and reduce the dominance of motor traffic in the area.Therefore asking questions about traffic on the A4 and A316 is moot because that isn't a consideration for the objectives of this scheme.  Management of traffic levels on London's arterial road network may be addressed by the ULEZ, a boundary charge or a road pricing scheme.  I don't see a connection between your comments about traffic elsewhere in Chiswick and the measures south of the A4.  An origin-destination survey involving ANPR cameras tracking vehicle movements in the S Chiswick area clearly showed that the main traffic flow was from A316 to A4 and secondary flow between A316 and A205.I don't see how getting drivers to stay on the A316 and A4 affects traffic on Acton Green and the Glebe estate,Indeed for the Glebe estate, I have data from a traffic survey done in April 2019.  That shows the major traffic flows in this area at that time were Dukes Avenue to eastbound A4 bypassing the SCR/A4 junction and Dukes Avenue to Barrowgate Rd 'jumping the queue' at SCR for the A4 junction.As to the popularity of the scheme, maybe look at what people said when asked privately and directly. https://chiswickcalendar.co.uk/a-divided-community/

Michael Robinson ● 2081d

I suppose I should respond to Michael about the limitations in the data analysis.1. The data is limited in time, in covers Sept 2019 and Sept 2020 only.  We have no idea whether a "normal" Sept is representative of other months of the year, indeed we have no idea what a "normal" September in terms of driving data looks like.2. Sept 2019 was pre-Covid, Sept 2020 was not.  Just because the traffic in Sept 2020 in areas not covered by the road closures had nearly caught up with pre-Covid levels brings in a series of assumptions none of which can be adequately checked.3. The data is limited in geographical extent so we cannot really know whether there is substantial traffic displacement to other roads which are themselves or become a problem.4. A similar point arises in relation to traffic evaporation.  If the point of the schemes, or a least one of the key points, is to reduce traffic by encouraging people to take buses, walk or cycle, the geographical and time limits of the data mean it is impossible to draw any statistical sound conclusions as to whether there is, and if so what amount of, traffic evaporation.5. Then there is the issue of what sort of journeys are being effected.  We have no idea how this is impacting on non-local and local traffic - and for this purpose local means journey being made within Chiswick or by residents of Chiswick returning to residence.  A scheme which massively reduces people using back streets to cut through from A316 to A4 or vice versa may be considered a success but if at the same time it also massively impacts of people living in Grove Park who find that many businesses will no longer deliver to them then it will have major local problems.  The data simply cannot address these issues.The leading academic research, now over 20 years old, emphasised that with all road schemes there would be short term, medium term and long term effects as traffic adapted to new road layouts.  One month's worth of data is barely sufficient to count as short term.  That is why even LBH wanted a longer review period.  At the risk of upsetting nearly everyone my view is that the schemes need at least 12 months of "normal" operation before any conclusion can be drawn with even a modicum of statistical soundness of the scheme's effectiveness.

Justin Stephenson ● 2081d

Justin,Thanks for the response.  In answer to your points.1. Define "normal".  I'd suggest that you will be unable to define what 'normal' actually is therefore the data is the best you will get.2. I think you are overthinking this.  What assumptions? Why do they need to be checked?3. This isn't relevant.  The objective of the project is to improve condifions for walking and cycling and reduce the dominance of motor traffic in the area.  The origin - destination survey showed the major flows were from A316 to A4.  Can you name specific areas that are affected by keeping traffic on the A4 and A316?4. The survey data isn't intended to measure traffic evaporation,  That would likely be done by interviewing a representative sample of people about their travel choices and I wouldn't expect this to be done until all measures have been in place for a while.5 Actually, the survey data gives a pretty good view of how journeys are being affected. Data is available in both directions down to 15 minute periods and it is interesting to see streets where the flow is pretty well identical from a year ago, compared to streets where there is a change.On your last point, I think you have unrealistic expectations of what is actually possible and practical.  In the medium and long term, there will be so many other factors that will affect traffic flow (like ULEZ, possible boundary charge, possible road pricing) that the impact of a change affecting a few thousand vehicles years ago will be lost in the noise.Ultimately data is just there to assist decision making. The data indicates that the measures were pretty successful in doing what they were intended to do.

Michael Robinson ● 2081d

If you define local very narrowly then local traffic will be a small proportion. I'd regard myself as local as my ultimate destination is in Chiswick but would accept that I might be regarded as non-local for the purposes of analysis. I understand what the objectives of the scheme are but you can't totally discount displacement. The expectation is that traffic on the A316 heads towards the Hogarth Roundabout. That will be helpful to the extent that cars heading for the A4 westbound don't use Sutton Court Road but those heading north to Chiswick which may have used Sutton Court Road before seem now to be using Devonshire Road and pass through the Glebe Estate. A combination of the throttling of traffic on Chiswick High Road at the Acton Lane bus gate and Chiswick Lane plus the South Chiswick restrictions appear to be leading to the redirection of traffic bound for the north of Chiswick High Road to leave the A316 and to go up the North Circular to get back to Chiswick via Gunnersbury Lane and Bollo Lane. It would be perhaps possible to argue on balance that the cost of displacement of traffic to these two areas is outweighed by the benefit to Grove Park but the available evidence appears to suggest that residents are not convinced about the value to the scheme of them. I'm not sure if you are being entirely serious in suggesting a limited series of self-evidently biased interviews is representative of views in the area but there is no good reason why the feedback on the Commonplace system shouldn't be broadly representative of the opinion of people who live in the area. This appears to be negative by a wide margin. 


Andrew OSullivan ● 2081d

Andrew,To pick up on your points:“cars heading for the A4 westbound don't use Sutton Court Road but those heading north to Chiswick which may have used Sutton Court Road before seem now to be using Devonshire Road and pass through the Glebe Estate.”There was minimal change in the traffic using Sutton Court Rd between 2019 and 2020 surveys.  What is your evidence that more traffic is using Devonshire Rd and going through the Glebe Estate?“ South Chiswick restrictions appear to be leading to the redirection of traffic bound for the north of Chiswick High Road to leave the A316 and to go up the North Circular to get back to Chiswick via Gunnersbury Lane and Bollo Lane.”The impact of the S Chiswick measures on this route seems dubious. In any event, how many vehicles are heading up the A316 with a destination of Chiswick via Gunnersbury Lane. Traffic from residents will be minimal and it isn’t as if there are major “trip attractors” in the area. Chiswick Business Park is impacted by WFH.“ there is no good reason why the feedback on the Commonplace system shouldn't be broadly representative of the opinion of people who live in the area”The good reason why it won’t be representative is that the Commonplace survey is on the OneChiswick “spam list” along with the email addresses of Hounslow cabinet and officers. Cllr Biddolph and other OneChiswick members have been continually exhorting people to bombard these people with emails and add comments to the survey. As a result they are claiming positively North Korean levels of support from Commonplace.What is the basis for your claim that actually asking residents in the area what they thought of the changes was “self evidently biased”. The person doing the research spoke to about two thirds of households on the street.

Michael Robinson ● 2081d

Michael, I know you choose to ignore my posts, but that is fine. As long as other people read them and can see the huge holes in your position I am happy.So;* YOu cannot infer anything from Sept 2020 data about what the 'normal' traffic patterns will be. Not only we were in partial lockdown, stadiums empty, WFH, LHR empty etc etc. But also critically CS9 did not exist then, so key features such as the new bus gate and big reductions in capacity at key junctions had not happened.* So to ignore the realities of what is happening today based on what your data did or did not say last September is crazy* We already know that traffic heading from Sw or west to access GP, that might reasonably have used SoTG, is now routed along A4 then Barrowgate Rd to reach SCR. So more traffic on an already busy and congested residential road* The point about Glebe estate would be that traffic that might previously have come through GP and up SCR, faced now with local GP restrictions plus CS9 may well choose other routes, including that indicated* We can also see how the new bus gate diverts traffic onto residential roads such as Wellersley Road or up Heathfield Gardens from the A4. This can be seen in practice and also by viewing the route options supplied by Google maps.So in summary, these schemes cannot be considered independently, as they all have knock on effects. Despite TOny not so Smart's comments, Google maps and its algorithms give a very good indication of how traffic will reroute.Finally, your comment about OneChiswick, as a member of a campaign group that will use all kinds of tactics to get its way, is staggering. You dont need to spam Hounslow inbox as key decision makers are part of your own org. How dare other interest groups attempt to make their voice heard. THe various cycling campaign groups have been very effective at getting their input into all consultations, as you well know.On the door to door questions, it would very much depend on exactly what is  being asked and how it is framed. Without this it is very hard to take any of your evidently biased commentary seriously. Strange also as I am sure it was you that told us all that these consultations are not referendums. So what are they, and if they are not referendums what does local opinion count for?There is no reason why anyone cannot use the commonplace survey, though I suspect we can both agree its pretty useless.

Paul Green ● 2081d