Michael, as far as I've read, it's not the urban enviroments that are the big issue. They are well mapped, and the speeds are low so the computers have time to process everything.It's the open road that is the problem. Speeds are higher, and stopping distance are longer, so the sensors need to see much further ahead, and the computers need to process faster. At 70mph, they are right around the limit of what the sensors can detect.Elon Musk has said that Tesla are planning to have a beta of a completely autonomous car by the end of this year. Realistically that will probably be some time next year, and with a period of testing and legal complexities, even the most ardent supporters of self driving cars will admit they won't be here in the next 3 years. It's unlikely they will be here in 4 years time either, but it's quite possible that they will be here in 5 or 6 years time, and probably likely that they will be here within 10 years.Once they are here, the roads will change massively. You don't need to replace every single vehicle to change the culture on the roads. Even 1 in 5 would basically force almost everyone to stick to the speed limit, as those who would like to speed would be in a queue behind a driverless car.A lot of people will give up their cars. There are already a lot of younger people who don't own their own cars, and just get an Uber a couple of times a week. It works out cheaper. Even with a cheap second hand car, it probably costs around £30 per week to own a car before you drive it anywhere. If you want something nicer it will be double that, or more. It's already cheaper to get an Uber than it is to own a car to drive it 2 or 3 times per week. With no driver to pay, then the price of a minicab will plummet. More people will do the sums and come to the conclusion that it's cheaper not to own your own car.When the change comes, it will happen quickly. Once they are legal, an operator like Uber will have thousands of them on the streets within months. The conventional taxi trade will be completely dead inside 2 years.Even if some people do still retain their own personal cars, they won't be necessarily be that high a proportion of traffic. As it is, a lot of people only drive their own car an hour or two per day, while things like cabs and buses are in use for a much higher proportion of the time. Cabs might be a relatively small number of cars in absolute terms, but make up a much higher proportion of total traffic.Also, some who choose to retain their own private vehicle will choose a driverless one. Manually driven privately owned vehicles will become the minority in places like London relatively quickly.You are right about there not being a need for 2 tonne lumps of metal for getting about London, and it is likely that on demand driverless cars won't all be 5 or 7 seaters. The app that you use to book it will ask how many passengers there are and will send something appropriate. At the moment, an individual cab driver has to have something bigger even though a large proportion of journeys only have 1 or 2 passengers. He/she can't afford to be turning down fares on an individual basis. If Uber (or other operators) have a fleet of thousands, they will be able to manage demand and send an appropriate vehicle.You are also right about the effect of empty cars on traffic. Like I said, people will be forced out of cars, either by gridlock, road pricing, or some combination of both.I might be wrong on some of the minor details, and we don't know the exact timing, but we need to consider what the future look like when building infrastructure projects.Typically the business case for a big project might look at a 30 or 40 year time frame. Everything will have changed on the roads in half that, or less.
Al Webber ● 2210d