Forum Topic

Time for 2nd Full Lockdown

In early March we needed a full lockdown but the science was muzzled by our government until it was too late and an extra 10k people died needlessly.At that time, daily new cases were running at under 1000 a day. Now we're around 3000 a day.Even with a lockdown late March, we still had a 4x increase to 4000 a day during April/May. Where will we be in Oct/Nov?Deaths mid March were around 10/day. By April they were around a 1000 a day. We're currently at the same low numbers of deaths as early March but somehow this is being explained as different. We're fed misleading misinformation...."it's mainly the young that have got it", "there's no increase in hospital cases" "you only get it from large social gatherings" "when the vaccine comes it'll all be alright".....keep working.What's different? Has Covid mutated into a form where only the people who are not going to die get it? No.Very soon hostiptal cases will explode and lots of people will start dying again.In the 7 months of this crisis, our government has continued to work 5 days a week or less.  Taking their weekends, lunches, their holidays. Doing their PR. Keeping Calm and Carrying on being the lazy, useless, lazy, incompetents that they are.The result is that we sadly not much better placed than in March.No robust or effective testing system.No track and trace system which could help avoid a full lockdown.No effective measures to prevent spread other than "wear a mask in some places if you want to"The advantage we have now verus March is that we know what is likely to happen.We can also see the trends in other countries further down the road than us. For instance, in France, the 3k a day cases amongst the young have unsurpisingly jumped to the middle aged and now they've got 10k cases a day and their hospitals are once again struggling.Will we have the balls to go for another Full Lockdown?I doubt it.The pressure of getting the economy going clouds all judgement. The ironic thing is a short sharp stop now could mean we are working through the next months -rather than the stop go stop that we are already seeing as people get their autumn colds.Lazy lazy incompetent Tory government.

Richard Potts ● 2234d141 Comments

"Has Covid mutated into a form where only the people who are not going to die get it? No.Very soon hospital cases will explode and lots of people will start dying again."And, what if your scaremongering and wild speculation doesn't materialise ?.  Oh well there you go, that's the economy completely screwed but better to be safe than sorry eh ?.  Sorry you lost your job and your home, at least you're still alive even if you haven't got any kind of life to live for, chin up and all that.Of course it's an opinion and you're entitled to it, but it is just that, a personal opinion.For 2 months now most European countries have been experiencing a steady but significant increase in cases, but not the associated increase in deaths, look at the figures today of new covid related deaths and new cases :Germany 733 new cases, 1 death.Italy 1229 new cases, 9 deaths.Belgium 851 new cases, 2 deaths.Netherlands 1379 new cases, 2 deaths.And the 7 day average death rate in most European countries remains steady or is continuing to decline, with numerous countries continuing to average less than 10 or even 5 deaths per day.  It goes without saying that its horrible if you or a member of your family is one of those people, but sadly the bigger picture has to take priority.As for France, judging by the amount of people of all ages I see everyday lining the route of the Tour de France, and what I hear from personal acquaintances in different parts of the country, I wouldn't place too much weight on abit of scaremongering in the media.

Adam Beamish ● 2234d

Just for record I am not looking forward to another lockdown but I feel it sadly becomes the only choice (if you want to try to contain) because the government has failed to get an effective track & trace system in place in the 7 months since this started.It seems that the government is now considering a 2nd Lockdown after all. But yet again - failing to learn from its mistakes. They're talking about a 2 week "circuit breaker" at half term.The problem with that is Half-term is mid Oct. They might think that's less disruptive but by delaying it becomes more disruptive.Didn't the delayed lockdown in March teach us anything? Even a week earlier and deaths would have been less and the lockdown shorter. It seems that, even with the gift of hindsight, our useless leaders will continue making the same mistakes.An alternative is just follow the US. Herd immunity eventually. Let the virus run riot - let local government make decisions on local locks downs and blame them for all deaths.  My bet is that is what we will do.FYI since I started this post. My son has tested positive so we're all now isolating. The track & trace consisted of an on-line questionaire, asking where he had been and who he had been in contact with. The only people contacted from the list are people in our household. Friends have not been contacted. I naively though that a track & trace system would use GSM data to pin point everyone in eg M&S last Saturday between 10.0 and 10.30 and send them a text to be extra aware about symptoms etc. But it seems restricted to just people who you know. In that respect it is a complete waste of time and money.

Richard Potts ● 2230d

James,And I could say what annoys me is when someone effectively uses emotional blackmail to try to give their opinion gravitas - I'm not saying Chris is doing that, but when you start going on about how where people's compassion is then that's the route you're going down.Of course none of us like to read Chris's individual experience and we all hope he soon recovers.  Do we really have to say that as a caveat before we dare post on this thread ?.FWIW a close friend of my family died from coronavirus.  At the other end of the spectrum my cousin (in her mid 20's) got it and basically felt like she'd got a bad cold for afew days but nothing more.  2 unconnected clients of mine who are in their 50's and 60's got it and told me afterwards it was nothing.So, to state the bleeding obvious, no two people are going to experience identical reactions to catching the virus.As I said on the Brentford forum yesterday, on the one hand you've got people (who either for entirely genuine medical reasons or simply because they are of an extremely nervous disposition) who are terrified to leave their homes until there's no new cases - they think we should all be compelled to stay at home until that day arrives.  On the other hand you've got people who think that there shouldn't be any restrictions and it should be a free for all.Most of us sit somewhere in the middle of those extremes.  I'm no more in favour of another full lockdown than I am of a free for all, in my view both extremes are equally unpalatable.  But at the same time any position in the middle relies on everyone being 'sensible', which is sadly equally unrealistic.  And that's not just because people in the UK are irresponsible, my Mrs. was in the Czech Republic last week (so is now self-quarantine in Slovakia before hopefully returning here in 2 weeks) and was saying that there's very little mask wearing, social distancing or such like going on there at any time of the day or night.What's the point closing the pubs at 10pm ?.  If you're going to close pubs then surely you have to close schools as well ?.If I was convinced a 2nd full lockdown would resolve this one and for all then so be it.  But the 1st lockdown didn't, and virtually every country, no matter how they've tried to deal with it, is now in the same boat (with the rather curious exception of Sweden).My concern (actually not my personal concern but a concern in terms of the bigger picture) is that I regard another lockdown as rather akin to a sizeable privileged minority who take to a nuclear bunker when there's an early warning of a nuclear war - when they come out that bunker they're alive and well, but it transpires that the war wasn't anything more than afew skirmishes, but because of how they prioritised their selfish short-term preservation the world is now ruined because the economy has gone to pot, millions of people have lots their jobs and homes, and many have been driven to suicide.People will say "ah, but you can rebuild economies" and yes you can, but you don't destroy economies unless there is absolutely no other option and you are absolutely certain that the alternative is worse.

Adam Beamish ● 2228d

I don't entirely disagree with you Steve, in that I don't subscribe to the notion that closing pubs and restaurants at 10pm will have any significant impact - it isn't like at 21.59 everyone is sensible and the virus is dormant, but at 22.01 everyone goes crazy and the virus wakes up.But where are we heading ?.  So many businesses cannot afford to go down this route and further restrictions will push them into bankruptcy.  You say the economy can recover, but for weeks now almost every day big employers have been confirming major job losses, and with the imminent end of furlough that is only going to increase.  Nor can (or should we) expect the government to throw endless amounts of money at the 'lucky ones' who can be furloughed or get a self-employed grant.  It's easy to say "work from home" but so many businesses, big or small, depend upon employees being in offices for their day-to-day survival.  And again, to those who say its selfish to go on holiday at the moment, I say they are at least trying to keep the tourism industry afloat rather than solely focusing on their own selfish self-preservation. We seem to be getting to the point where, in crude terms, it's deaths in terms of people or deaths in terms of the economy, and anything in the middle isn't any good.And that's where the polarisation exists within society, just as it does on this forum.  You, James and others are all about the extreme of putting people's lives above all else, which is arguably very noble and so forth, but others, like myself, just can't go along with that, because whilst I can easily say that I don't want any of my family or friends to die from covid, all I see is a much bigger negative in terms of the nationwide and global economic implications.Personally I think the government lost all credibility yesterday by going into complete scaremongering mode and I fear that will completely backfire because an increasing amount of society aren't "buying it" anymore and, rather than getting them onside, it will achieve the precise opposite.

Adam Beamish ● 2227d

Dear James,Wipe away the tears, quit bawling and listen hard!  You are a creep.  Reverting yet again to teenage behaviour, making up any old story that grows overnight in the unhealthy weed-bed of your sick mind.  Then chucking cheap insults out of your pram before anyone's awake.  If you really want to pick a forum fight with me, you're going absolutely the right way about it.Actually, everyone who knows me and ALL my friends have always known me as Stuart Kerr (pronounced Carr).  That's how I was raised.  That is my name.  Pronounced like Deborah (Kerr) and the actor Bill (Kerr) and thousands of others, as Carr.  It's a different branch of the clan to the Kerr's.  I don't know why.So carry on with your new insult – FKerr.  I'm  sure it'll keep you happy.  And it'll act as a constant reminder to me and others of your ugly, Lower 4b, 13 year old, thickheaded childishness.  As did last weeks Stupid Stu.As for 'failed journalist' bit.  Well, at least that's partly accurate.  As it happens I was a rather successful journalist.  But only for a few short years in my very early 20's - before I realised that a lifetime spent asking awkward questions to people I didn't much care for just wasn't for me.  So I got out.Otherwise, it's true.  Journalism clearly did nothing for me and I obviously have no ability whatsoever to string even half a sentence together.  Compared, that is, to the glittering likes of you James Smith Jones.Back to business.I've had quite enough of you James.  Enough of your cheap insults to many who have been on this forum for years.  Enough of your simpleton instructions on how the public should behave on Covid.  Enough of your dumbhead vision that you and nobody else knows all the answers.  And absolutely enough of your lousy Joe Goebbels imitations wherein you hold some nincompoop conviction that if you go on spouting your cheap lies for long enough, somehow they are bound stick!They won't James...Neither will you!

Stuart Kerr ● 2226d