My full quote and guess way back in March was:“My guess is that, when we look back in a year’s time, mortality rates won’t have been notably higher in 2020 than in previous years, but we will be struggling greatly for allowing businesses and the economy to be to destroyed”.Deaths from all causes (England & Wales) are below average in recent weeks, so the excess is currently coming down. Unless there are any sharp increases in death numbers between now and year end, excess deaths of around 11% look likely for 2020. Notable? Might be worth noting that a flu-like virus was going around and killed a number of people with compromised immune systems, typically the very sick and elderly. The second part of my guess, relating to businesses and the economy, which you chose to chop off, is proving to be alarmingly accurate.
Michael Brown ● 2276d