Forum Topic

Hancock calls for urgent review into coronavirus death data in England

Oh dear!https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53443724I thought there was something fishy going on.  If you look at the Worldometer stats:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ which I believe is sourced from PHE there is a significant difference with the figures from NHS England:https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/The Worldometer 7 day moving average days is about 80 per day in the last week, NHS England has about 20 per day.And it has puzzled me for some time why the Worldometer "Recovered" count always says N/A.  Now we know, the BBC report says:"It follows confirmation from Public Health England that reported deaths may have included people who tested positive months before they died."(Also posted on Brentford forum)

Andy Riley ● 2299d19 Comments

The whole thing has been a scam from the beginning. Anyone with any sense knows that.

Michael Brown ● 2299d

AR > "Oh dear!"You have made a number of errors in your analysis. For example, NHS England only reports deaths in hospital and does not include care homes, private homes or other settings.The ONS analysis is based on death certificates mentioning coronavirus as the cause of death, and will not include people who tested positive and were later killed in a car accident, died from heart disease, etc. This is a more reliable count.There is also the matter of excess deaths...

John Whitworth ● 2299d

The real challenge is when comparing with other countries because every country has different perimeters for their count. A mentioned on an earlier a medical pal told me it was utter madness the way we are counting COVID deaths because people are dying from many other causes and COVID although mentioned was not the main cause of death so the data is misrepresented. Sadly people die. Other countries are not counting excess deaths.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2299d

JT > "Other countries are not counting excess deaths."Nonsense.For example: https://www.euromomo.eu/

John Whitworth ● 2299d

Haven’t seen this report so some countries are, data is useless to compare unless it is like for like. I am surprised that PHE doesn’t have a policy on how they count COVID deaths that is consistent. It is crazy to record COVID death if they died from other causes. Given we are learning so much about this virus medics and scientists need accurate reporting to truly understand more about it.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2299d

JT > "... data is useless to compare unless it is like for like."And the way mathematicians deal with this is called standardisation. EuroMOMO use a standardisation technique that yields a 'Z-Score' that enables comparison across different populations (e.g. countries).

John Whitworth ● 2299d

John,You are right - I had in mind to make the point about NHS England only reporting hospital deaths but my submit finger was over eager omitted this.Hopefully the review will be quick as this is a matter of importance.

Andy Riley ● 2299d

Boris too confirms that the destruction of the economy and people's lives may be completed by Christmas.

Michael Brown ● 2299d

John,My understanding of Z-score is that it allows comparison of trends within and between data sets, but not of absolute values.  To compare absolute values requires understanding of data definitions and collection processes which are not apparent in the data itself.https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/

Andy Riley ● 2299d

AR > "To compare absolute values requires understanding of data definitions and collection processes which are not apparent in the data itself."Exactly.Where absolute values can't be compared, you may use a standardisation (or normalisation) technique to provide a measure which can be compared.Quantitative analysis is very useful.

John Whitworth ● 2299d

Please give it a rest.....a lot of industries are doing OK, adapting etc, people can be very resourceful when they have to be. Sadly unemployment will go up but let’s hope the rest of us working can help to turn this around as quickly as possible.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2299d

In a real situation, a government would need to be making decisions based on the current situation at any given time. Christmas doesn’t come into it. This is simply more evidence of a script being followed. It’s the same with face-masks in shops; many see this as an extreme measure, but regardless of that view, if needed in the interests of public health, then it’s needed now, not in a week or two. People will have already sneezed or coughed out their deadly covid droplets in shops well before then.

Michael Brown ● 2299d

Michael, I think the government are just trying to cover every eventually as some people have no common sense!  Many people are fearful, anxious so it’s important to provide some positivity for those that need it. I would hate to be in government because they are dammed if they do or dammed if they don’t. If people are social distancing then a face mask provides little or no protection but as so many people seem to have forgotten about social distancing it makes sense to made face masks mandatory.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2299d

'if needed in the interests of public health, then it’s needed now, not in a week or two'Michael, I find myself agreeing with something you said ... that is clearly evidence that there isn't a script, no one could have foreseen that!Anyway, on that light hearted note, genuinely wishing you (and everyone else) a good weekend.Andrew.

Andrew Jones ● 2299d

"Hancock calls for urgent review..."If so, it's the ONLY urgent thing he has done this year. Because he hopes that the results will make him look less bad.Self-serving little p....

T P Howell ● 2299d

Look at the destruction caused already, and they want to keep this going until Christmas, by which time the affects of ‘the virus’ will be worse, according to the scientific ‘experts’ who Johnson takes his advice from. Classic ‘stringing along’ tactics, which we’ve seen all along..

Michael Brown ● 2299d

The No1 priority of the government has always been to "look good". (the fact that they have also failed on that is beside the point)The manipulation of data whether it be tests or deaths is just part of that.Naturally, this urgent review will reveal a ridulous number of people who were "not proven" to have died of C-19. Naturally, there will be no similar urgent review why the number of "other" deaths has gone through the roof during this pandemic.And when the "re-imagined C-19 death statistic" is published will we be safer?

Richard Potts ● 2298d

Can anyone explain why Hancock's department has failed to provide test result details to local authorities? Many councils have been asking for named patient details so that they can conduct tracing and preempt local outbreaks. Hancock has denied them this data for weeks, it seems. What is Hancock playing at?

Alan Clark ● 2297d

Bureaucracies have a tendency to keep data and their inner workings secret.  They know that there are numerous people with the skills to do their own analyses and possibly come up with contrary policy conclusions.  Access to information is surely a necessary condition for democracy (with some exclusions, e.g. for some national security matters).Under the new guidance regarding distribution of pandemic powers to local authorities will they be open with the relevant data and reasoning?If Hounslow attempts to introduce any measures without making public the relevant data and reasoning, then I suggest that we, the public has no obligation to obey.I invite Councillors to share on this forum the policies towards open governance to be followed by Hounslow in this regard.

Andy Riley ● 2297d