Forum Topic

Monday relaxing lock down?

I know that on Monday France is relaxing (not dropping completely) lock down for all but the regions with the worst virus problems. The expectation is that the UK does some slight relaxing also. Looking at the infection rates this is surprising.The rolling 7 day average of new cases for the worst affected European countries since first week of April to now:Spain - gone from 6,000 to 2,500 new casesItaly - gone from 4,500 to 1,500 new casesFrance - gone from 6,500 to 1,000 new casesUK - gone from 5,000 to 5,000 new casesThere is not much in these numbers that indicate that (1) the way the UK is applying lock down is being that successful; (2) the UK is ready for any form of relaxing the guidelines - quite the reverse in fact.I'm unclear as to why some are reporting a readiness to relax our lock down. Other countries, where regions are not showing the right levels of improvement, are not relaxing anything.

Alan Clark ● 2372d77 Comments

They would be fools to relax the already lax lockdown. Massive death rate increase since yesterday.

Steve Taylor ● 2372d

The current lockdown does seem rather lax and supposedly that must contribute to the still high infection rate. It’s pretty obvious that many people are certainly out for more than one session of exercise and see trips to B&Q as essential and go shopping every day. It would seem very early to consider anything much different from the current lockdown which has certainly been less stringent than in France or Italy.

Stewart Jones ● 2372d

Reasoning is, apparently, that in the general population the transmission rate is a little below 1, but it's higher in care homes which is pushing the numbers higher. It's grannie and grandad who are bearing the brunt.

Ken Munn ● 2372d

Lockdown should not be relaxed in any shape or form, if it is it'd be like playing Russian Roulette, except with all but one bullet removed from the gun's chamber.

Loraine Pemberton ● 2371d

Lorraine, We have different views on a number of issues but I totally agree with you on this matter.

Stewart Jones ● 2371d

I'm with you on this, Alan. Any significant relaxation of the so-called lockdown would be most unwise at present. Death rates are coming down slightly, although the continuing horror show in care homes is partially masking the decline amongst the rest of the population. But I'm not sure one can argue that a relatively stable new infection rate indicates that the lockdown isn't working. More likely it simply reflects the fact that the government has "ramped up" testing. More tests=more infections detected.

Robert Fish ● 2371d

My thoughts exactly Robert. You beat me to it.

Bob Guyett ● 2371d

AC, when are you going to wake up? Lockdown has little to do with any virus; it’s about the taking over of our freedoms, finances and futures; and you ask this question on VE day!I know you’re an idiot but it still surprises me how you, and so many others, have been taken in by this scam; or are you part of it? According to ONS figures (Weeks 13 to 17 inc.), of the 27,330 deaths registered in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentionedon the death certificate, only 615 were below the age of 50 yrs. Almost all of the dead had underlying health issues and many were already dying, so we can probably halve these figures, at least; then, in the same period, there are 10,794 deaths that are in excess of the average but where COVID-19 is not mentioned on the death certificate. These additional deaths could be for a number of reasons, but there is no evidence to suggest that lockdown has minimised COVID-19 deaths. Overall death rates may even be higher as a result of lockdown. Getting it so far? Phase 1 of lockdown has knocked the stuffing out of the economy, industry, jobs, people’s financial lives, social lives and futures. Phase 2 is about slowly strangling who and what survived Phase 1. 

Michael Brown ● 2371d

If the lock down is 'having no effect', then did we need a lockdown? Would it have been 'even worse' without a lock down? Is our present lockdown having some effect but not enough? Why is this? Are all 'new cases' and 'new deaths' now entirely within care homes? If so, would lifting the lockdown for the rest of the population then be OK? Either way, specialist teams need to descend on care homes and find out what's going on, with rigorous testing and enhanced precautions against the spread of infection. What happened in the other European countries who are now experiencing better results? Did they have the same problems within care homes, and how did they deal with them? Were our care homes discouraged from sending their ill residents to hospital and somehow expected to manage the situation with grossly inadequate equipment and staffing?After completely neglecting this sector hitherto, the same dramatic action is needed as was applied to hospitals, where we had a wholesale transformation of the existing arrangements, with temporary field hospitals set up in short order. Thus it could be that care homes will have to be closed and their residents and staff transferred to more secure quarantine locations. Or do the figures reveal something in the Anglo-Saxon psyche that encourages carelessness, risk taking, and self-interest among our people as well as our government, despite our belief in how caring we all are?

Peter Evans ● 2371d

Agreed Peter. The old in care homes are lambs to the slaughter and it's upsetting that no action seems to have been taken to address this. Ken in an earlier post was bang on in saying that grannie and grandad are bearing the brunt. We should keep care home lockdown tight to protect their residents whilst starting to slacken the lockdown on the rest of the country before economic disaster worsens (if that were possible). Otherwise the nation and future generations will be bearing the brunt for grannie and grandad. Tables turned and poignant on VE Day.

JR Turner ● 2371d

We can’t say that lock down is having no impact. Without lock down there would have been a day on day increase in the number of new cases. The UK has achieved a levelling off but not a reduction. So a significant beneficial impact. We might assume that more testing has been in part the reason for the UK not achieving the type of reduction in new cases other countries have achieved. But for that to be true then these other countries would have been maintaining their testing levels at the same volume through April. I’m pretty certain they were all increasing their testing as well. So I’m unconvinced that the reason the UK numbers are not going down is primarily due to more testing. More likely it is primarily down to more infections. Which is primarily due to the UK lockdown being less effective than similar efforts are elsewhere.

Alan Clark ● 2371d

There's a report in the Telegraph today that Dr Robert Dingwall, who sits on one of the  government's advisory committees, thinks that the government's lockdown messaging  had "effectively terrorised" the population and has said: "There is a fair degree of consensus among people far more expert on these things than I am that outdoor transmission is negligible". He thinks that we could quite safely go to 1.5 metres separation which seems to be an "internatinal standard" and added that the distance was set at 2 metres because the public couldn't be trusted to observe 1 metre.Alll the same, I'm quite happy to continue to observe the lockdown "rules", but as soon as the pubs open I'll be first in the queue, because I'm turning into an alcoholic at home.

Roger Talbot ● 2371d

As you say, MB, it’s VE Day! It’s a shame you’ve come here, yet again, to argue the lives of some have no value, much like the attitude of Nazis to Jews and Roma.  Thankfully, decent people, now and then, utterly reject your way of thinking.

Kerry Chandler ● 2371d

I don't think we should set too much store by the number of new infections. As testing increases, so inevitably does the number of confirmed cases. More significant is the number of new hospitalisations which is, I understand, falling steadily.

Susan Kelly ● 2371d

But aren't deaths outside hospitals still pushing the figures up?As for our lockdown, has it not been as effective as it might have been because people are generally flouting it, or because there are specific hot spots which need to be investigated? Are the people of Newham and the West Midlands more careless and uncooperative than the rest of us or are other factors in play? Is a giant Tesco any safer, with its one way system and lines on the floor, than a small corner shop? All worth researching in case there's a next time. Equally, it could well be that, once he turned his mind to it, Johnson and his well-oiled propaganda machine so successfully frightened the whole population that we're now noticeably resistant to going back to work or travelling normally now we've been so encouraged to regard everyone else as a potential killer.

Peter Evans ● 2371d

That's what they want, Peter. Phase 2 could last sometime; then comes Phase 3 when the State and global corps take over the collapsed businesses. Long been the plan.

Michael Brown ● 2371d

“ Or do the figures reveal something in the Anglo-Saxon psyche that encourages carelessness, risk taking, and self-interest among our people as well as our government, despite our belief in how caring we all are?”Spot on. It is the arrogance and deluded belief that we are infallible.

Steve Taylor ● 2371d

“We should keep care home lockdown tight to protect their residents whilst starting to slacken the lockdown on the rest of the country”No. It is because some people have been so slack about our wishy, washy, so called ‘lockdown’ that the virus had spread and worked its way into the care homes where people are most vulnerable. Today our parks are packed with people ignoring the rules and spreading the disease. This will be passed on to carers and the like who are working in care homes. If people STAYED at home it would prevent unnecessary deaths. The lock down must remain but it must be strictly enforced. Defeat the virus, then deal with the economy. Putting the economy before human life at this time  is ludicrous.

Steve Taylor ● 2371d

It's likely also to be influenced by government decisions. This week we saw heavily redacted reports from SAGE being published. At least some of the removed text (that is, the government censored the report from the 'independent' SAGE body) seems to cover recommendations to use permission forms for any movement outside people's homes. This is in place in places like France. People going shopping, or exercising, or going to work need to produce these forms along with prove of identity. I imagine the psychological impact of such a form and the risk of being challenged when stopped is a much, much greater drive to staying at home than say the UK's guidelines.So people might be behaving with arrogance and delusion but they are not being challenged on each and every outing from their home - "why, when, what for". No need to stop and think, just put on the running shoes or pick up the shopping bags.

Alan Clark ● 2371d

The Black Lion Pub, W6, serving drinks outside, today..  :-)

Michael Brown ● 2371d

I don't think any document checking process would work here, as we have far fewer police to check them than France, Spain or Italy, and we don't believe in carrying documents. There would also be a thriving market in forged test certificates if we had to prove that we don't have the virus, or had it in the past so we're free to roam.

Peter Evans ● 2371d

Well there may be some truth in your observation but why is forgery less of a problem in other countries?

Claire Moran ● 2371d

I’m unaware that a document exists in any country that states “had the virus, in the clear, can do as I please”. Or indeed any country that gives guidance to the people monitoring their lockdown “hey, if someone is able to show that they have had the virus and are now recovered then send them on their way”. So explain again the forgery issue?

Alan Clark ● 2371d

No one knows yet if having had it you are immune and if so how long that immunity lasts.  Journalists like Allison Pearson in the Telegraph are purveyors of fake news. There are at least 10 different strains of this virus already.

Claire Moran ● 2371d

That is the issue. Actually, both issues (dubiously sourced news stories being the second).

Alan Clark ● 2371d

The truth is piling up, and the BBC is starting to crack:

Michael Brown ● 2371d

There have been street party celebrations in some areas today.

Janice Evans ● 2371d

Was this permitted exercise? Travel to work? Shopping for food? On our statutory walk yesterday afternoon we had to plot a safe route through and past several of these illicit pavement gatherings. But now I see they were part of some officially encouraged celebration timetable which added 'having a picnic', 'raising a glass' and 'singing along' to the weekly clapping ritual. Talk about mixed messages!

Peter Evans ● 2371d

Yes, there are clearly mixed messages. I can’t believe that the reason the papers were anticipating a relaxing of lockdown was not due to an informal briefing. Downing Street slipped this message out for sure. Not only has this created an environment where many think it’s all over but it’s also creating disagreement with places like Scotland. There is a clearly stated aim to continue lockdown there. I’m expecting some fall out of these two diverging approaches.

Alan Clark ● 2371d

The lockdown is now in collapse.This morning I left home at 6am for my walk,  loads of people out even at that time,  jogger running in 2's, walkers side by side on the towpath. Add to that the amount of vodka bottles and stella cans strewn along strand on the green which I am sure Vets will be delighted with the resilience displayed here and we can all conclude that the government have once again blundered their comms.

Matthew Swain ● 2371d

At present we seem to be the laughing stock of the world with the way this is being handled - mishandled.Certainly a friend has told me some thick idiots near her decided to use VE day celebrations to have what she describes as a 'complete p*ss up' with total disregard for any safety measures. Much as we would all love to be rid of all this - we've come this far why ruin things now?

Vanessa Smith ● 2370d

Smiffy, there is no evidence to suggest that lockdown saves any lives; but non-Covid-19 deaths are now soaring. Time to join the party and save lives.

Michael Brown ● 2370d

VE Day = Virus in Europe Day (courtesy Private Eye)There's certainly a body of opinion in certain parts of the Tory party that wants all this lockdown nonsense lifted so we can all 'get back to business', and I'm sure many newspapers are sympathetic to that and more than happy to run big spreads implying it's virtually all over. That also paints Johnson as the party-pooper, which is not a role he likes, if he then has to maintain the status quo. So I guess on Sunday he'll throw in some minor concessions, like opening garden centres and allowing sunbathing and sitting about - just enough to undermine the comparative clarity of the present arrangements.

Peter Evans ● 2370d

AC > "Yes, there are clearly mixed messages."To be fair, some messages are quite explicit.For example, in the "what you can and can't do" coronavirus FAQ you will find the following: "Can I travel to someone’s house to look after children?" [The answer is 'yes']That question was added to the FAQ on May 1st.The birth of Wilfred Lawrie Nicholas Johnson was announced on April 29th.

John Whitworth ● 2370d

“ friend has told me some thick idiots near her decided to use VE day celebrations to have what she describes as a 'complete p*ss up' with total disregard “Yep, but we really shouldn’t be surprised at how many thick people there are in the UK when we consider the outcome of the Brexit vote.

Steve Taylor ● 2370d

The most relevant figures are number of cases in hospital which we know are falling. It would be really interesting to understand numbers from the new cases that need hospitalisation. We know 80% of the population will have no or mild symptoms. In terms of our elderly in care homes there is something like 85% of all care beds are in private care homes. I really do hope they have measured in place to protect their residents & staff and will need them to stay in place until a vaccine is found. Our elderly must be protected at all cost.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2370d

We should remember that care homes aren't the same as nursing homes. As I understand it, care homes generally have no medical staff (which might even make it difficult for them to administer tests) and they call on GPs to deal with medical issues in the normal way, presumably by referring the patient to hospital.  So why are people dying in such numbers in care homes? If they're that ill they shouldn't be there.  Were hospitals refusing to take them or discharging them too soon for fear of overloading the system? This crisis shows that we need to replace our disjointed care provision with a properly funded National Care Service, closely linked with the NHS.  See page xx of the Labour Manifesto that so many people recently rejected.

Peter Evans ● 2370d

Residential care home do have a team who look after medical needs but they call upon Local GP practise when required. So the care team could be trained in doing the test easily. I also think care homes should change their staffing structure during this time as the most likely way residents are catching it is through staff. One idea staff should be residential for say 4 days, switch to the next team for 4 days. Each team to be tested before their new shift. This would greatly reduce the chance of a staff member carrying the virus and infecting the residents.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2370d

Now at over 36,500 !Anyone who thinks Lockdown should be relaxed needs serious counselling imo.

Loraine Pemberton ● 2370d

Lorraine please remember that the populace is not a homogenious group. Given my age and medical history I could be construed as "highly vulnerable" and consequently out of self-interest would hope others would comply with the current regulations.The younger age groups are less susceptible with a lower per capita death rate. Here given the bravado of the young some may well be disposed to "take their chances". I don't want them to but I was young once and still understand the impetuous nature of youth. Some may believe that as the generators of wealth now in this country they have a superior right to choose over us oldies.That 36,500+ people have died is a terrible event and it scares me deeply. I think that some form of relaxation is needed before fatigue sets in and some groups become blase about lockdown and start to treat it with contempt.Perhaps to start with it should be remembered that the  misconception of current government regulations do not actually require people to leave their home only once a day. Leave more often if it helps but observe the self-isolation recommendations accurately.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2370d

Loraine, my apology for misspelling your name.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2370d

“I think that some form of relaxation is needed before fatigue sets in and some groups become blase about lockdown and start to treat it with contempt.”That would be a weak cop out. If anyone treats the lockdown with contempt they should be fined heavily and LOCKED UP.

Steve Taylor ● 2370d

nothing has convinced me so far that the 'taking it on the chin' and 'herd immunity' strategy chosen by the government has changed,only pr messaging to the public has changed .....

Claudia Jachtmann ● 2370d

Some forms of extremism have been demonstrated in the media this week.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2370d

Claudia, my response related to ST's comments, not yours.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2370d

Today’s published figure is 31,587.

Richard Kay ● 2370d

In response to Lorraine’s figure of 36K plus.

Richard Kay ● 2370d

My apology for using an inaccurate figure. I will not try to justify even the lesser amount.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2370d

We need intense extremism to stop this virus from spreading.

Steve Taylor ● 2370d

Not sure I agree, we have to remember that 80% of the population are not fatally affected and yet a big % of that 80% are suffering financially so we do need to balance how we handle this virus. So different treatment for those that are at serious risk, equally protect the 80% who have to keep living, working, etc. The challenge is creating an  infrastructure for all the various groups  one treatment doesn’t work for everyone.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2370d

So the virus is still clearing out care homes nationwide after 6 weeks of lockdown. Tells its own story..

Michael Brown ● 2370d

So sad and equally shocking that those running the care homes haven’t reacted fast enough to put in measures to protect their residents all of which are vulnerable. Bet they are still taking £6K per month per resident just appalling,

Jayne Thorburn ● 2370d

As I have mentioned on other threads, we have a friend who has had multiple sclerosis since his thirties.  A couple of years ago it became obvious he could no longer cope alone, so he went into a care home where he would be checked on several times a day, encouraged to join in with others, had his meals prepared, cleaning done, wheeled into the gardens on nice days etc.  Recently he went to hospital for a urinary infection and they tested him for cv.  He was positive.  They decided he couldn't cope with being told and he was sent back to the care home when the urinary infection resolved.  I suspect that is happening far and wide.

Claire Moran ● 2370d

You're too quick to blame care homes. I'm no defender of theirs — I've seen too many inadequate care homes, with insufficient staff to give proper attention to residents. However, in this case the blame lies principally with Clipper Logistics, who were contracted to provide PPE to pharmacies, GPs and care homes. They have failed miserably — not only have care homes had to go without PPE, but a recent BMA survey reveals that 69% of GPs say they've had to buy their own.

Robert Fish ● 2370d

Typical Tory government obsession with outsourcing vital activities to dodgy private companies.

Peter Evans ● 2370d

Not sure one can put the blame on the care homes. The fact that carers are part of the community and may therefore bring the virus,  the fact that over zealous relatives from the outside community insisted in visiting their elderly relatives in the initial stages of this pandemic, the fact that PPE has been a major issue for all, the fact that older folk probably have underlying health issues, makes care homes very vulnerable. The issue of the cost of this care is another matter, and always has been.

Richard Kay ● 2370d

Still, you have to ask why the government, who are supposed to be in some sort of control, did not grasp all those scenarios: carers with lots of family members and patients’ relatives who were, in the early days,  still at work and having multiple contacts, visiting freely. Italy warned us and no notice was taken.

Vivienne Cox ● 2370d

Are you suggesting that care home challenges with this virus are created by the care homes themselves? Your post seems to imply that. Please clarify. We would love to be sure that central government cuts over the last 10 years have, in no way, impacted local care.

Alan Clark ● 2370d

Agree Vivienne, but I do think we have to be careful of looking back too far. This monster is new to the world, we learn as we move on, mistakes have been made. But wow, oh for hindsight!

Richard Kay ● 2370d

Alan, are you responding to me? 

Richard Kay ● 2370d

No

Alan Clark ● 2370d

Then whom?

Richard Kay ● 2370d

Replying to "So sad and equally shocking that those running the care homes haven’t reacted fast enough to put in measures to protect their residents all of which are vulnerable. Bet they are still taking £6K per month per resident just appalling"Which seems a little hard on the care sector. What exactly should they have been doing when NHS hospitals were struggling to get PPE and testing?

Alan Clark ● 2370d

The mouth-foamers aren't interested in reason Richard, they're far too excited by venting their hysteria and government bashing.

Viv Griffiths ● 2370d

I don’t operate in a blame culture it serves no purpose. My point is that if you run a profitable business specifically designed to care for vulnerable residents, the elderly then surely they have policies and procedures in place to handle example a flu epidemic which also kills the elderly. Flu is seasonal and a known risk. Surely this policy includes PPE, Isolation procedure, etc. To my knowledge the tax payer does not fund private care homes. Given the early alert was highlighted the elderly were extremely vulnerable to Covid-19 I would have thought private care homes would have reacted immediately to protect their staff & residents. For sure under the circumstances NHS England would help. We don’t know how the numbers are split between deaths in private or state run homes would be an interesting statistic.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2369d

Car home resident are often doing short stay in hospitals and could have taken the Virus back to the care homes as it takes a while to show symptoms, we may never know the reason.

Janice Evans ● 2369d

Sorry, care home residents.

Janice Evans ● 2369d

Covid-19 finishes off old people. Care homes are full of old people. Lockdown doesn't work. It's not rocket science.

Michael Brown ● 2369d

Lockdown has slow down the amount of new admissions to hospital,whichwas the main reason for it, so it has work in a way Michael.

Janice Evans ● 2369d

Prove it, Janice. You can't - there is no evidence to support such a claim; and neither can I prove my claim; but looking at stats around the world, there is no obvious benefit of a lockdown, so the decision to allow the destruction of the economy, industry, businesses, jobs and social futures is totally unjustifiable. Now that is a fact.

Michael Brown ● 2369d

No, neither of us can prove anything.

Janice Evans ● 2369d

Tanzanian President, John Magufuli, was suspicious of the COVID-19 test kits sent to his country, so arranged, covertly, for samples to be sent to the National Test Centre that included swabs taken from birds, sheep, pawpaw fruit and a goat. The pawpaw fruit and goat samples tested positive for COVID-19. Of course, the WHO reject his claims. Goat & Fruit Test Positive

Michael Brown ● 2369d

Michael Brown ● 2369d

Another 494 people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK have died, taking the total to 33,186.Ĺatest daily figure released by the Department of Health is for coronavirus-related fatalities in hospitals, care homes and the community, reported in a 24-hour since the last announcement. Yet our Government is relaxing the rules, that is go back to work, meet with 1 other person outside your immediate household per day and unlimited exercise in parks etc - does anyone really want a possible serious health problem or death wish ?

Loraine Pemberton ● 2366d

Geoffrey Completely agree with you but it has been relaxed, putting us all at risk.

Loraine Pemberton ● 2366d

It's even worse than that.The Government is relaxing the rules by "signalling" (it's new buzz word) changes, without being clear what those changes are.Engineering plausible deniability. When it all goes wrong it will be your (and my) fault for not being "alert" enough. Smoke and mirrors. Government by Gaslighting. And the fact that your "nanny" and your "cleaner" can return to work in your house (but your own family can't visit you) tells you all you need to know about this bunch.

T P Howell ● 2366d

TPH > 'When it all goes wrong it will be your (and my) fault for not being "alert" enough.'Or for not being imbued with sufficient "good solid British common sense".

John Whitworth ● 2366d