Forum Topic

ONS Data

Really interesting data from the ONS on BBC, on average over the past 5 years 32,763 deaths from flu or pneumonia. Currently we are tracking year to 10th April 10K death more than average over 5 year period. Before people shout the data also shows below average deaths this winter from flu. I know Covid 19 is not flu but interesting that we don’t react to so many deaths from a bad flu epidemic. Sadly people die it will be my turn one day ha!

Jayne Thorburn ● 2388d12 Comments

The real "killer" aspect of Covid-19 is the speed of transmission. The argument for lockdowns is that they are needed to reduce the speed of transmission, so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed by an avalanche of cases in a short time.  Deaths from flu typically occur over a 3/4 month period between December and March. Covid-19 is responsible for 16,500 hospial deaths in just over 1 month.

Robert Fish ● 2388d

UK Winter Flu deaths can fluctuate wildly from year to year, depending on the particular strain of flu, the effectiveness (or otherwise) of each year's vaccine, plus the weather.This year (2019/20) we have had exceptionally low death rates from flu, both because we got the vaccination programme right, but also because we have had an exceptionally mild winter (no frost or snow in large parts of the country).The fact that overall death rates are higher this year and are accelerating even into April, when Flu deaths normally tail off rapidly, shows just how deadly this COVID virus is.And still there are morons out there who claim it doesn't even exist...

Richard Cathcart ● 2388d

agree with Robert on this one and why so many are unable to graspthat the speed of transmission is the problem I just don't know.

Janice Evans ● 2388d

Robert hit the nail on the head...it’s the speed of infection that has warranted such a drastic response to lockdown our economy. We do need to open up our economy sooner rather than later otherwise the damage for so many people will be even worse. Let’s hope the numbers keep falling, we have the advantage of watching Europe as they ease restrictions so we can start easing life for everyone here. Most importantly we need a robust strategy to keep ahead of this virus without another lockdown,

Jayne Thorburn ● 2388d

Agree with RF that the speed of transmission is key to the mortality rate with Covid-19.But we shouldn't also overlook the lack of a vaccine, considering vaccination also prevents thousands of extra flu deaths each year.

Richard Cathcart ● 2388d

Probably the same people who can't grasp that are the same idiots who can't understand that they can only cross a footbridge one way - so that it has to be completely closed to everyone! When you see the lunatics in the States saying 'it's a hoax' and standing waving guns around you really do wonder.

Vanessa Smith ● 2388d

Janice, I'm delighted we can at least agree on something!  😀 

Robert Fish ● 2388d

England & Wales Deaths from ONS – Weeks 9 to 15 (end of Feb to mid April). The first figure is the average for 5 years prior and the second figure is for 2020. The figures in brackets are the numbers where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.Week 9:    10,816/11,183 (0)  Week 10:  11,498/10,895 (0)Week 11:  11,205/11,019 (5)Week 12:  10,573/10,645 (103)Week 13: 10,130/11,141 (539)Week 14:  10,305/16,387 (3,475)  Week 15:  10,520/18,516 (6,213)  Let’s look at Weeks 14 and 15 in more detail. Whilst many deaths may not have been caused by COVID-19 where mentioned on the death certificate, when we subtract the number of deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned, we’re left with a death rate that is still significantly higher than average (surplus shown in bold).  If this isn’t due to negative effects caused by lockdown, what else might it be?Week 14  10,305/16,387 (3,475)  16,387 – 3,475 = 12,912 – 10,305 = 2,607Week 15  10,520/18,516 (6,213)  18,516 – 6,213 = 12,303 – 10,520 = 1,783 

Michael Brown ● 2388d

I first assumed you meant 33k per annum - but when I looked for data on flu & other respiratory deaths it seemed to be around 20k per annum. Covid-19, with a couple of months appears to have resulted in 22k deaths (hospital recorded deaths of 16k plus 40% more from care homes). So a much higher annual amount, a more rapid spike in deaths and a much greater demand on ICU beds.

Alan Clark ● 2388d

One of those who died from Coronavirus was William Frankland the allergist age 108, who worked with Alexander Fleming and who was still sending in articles to be published at the age of 104.  At 103 he was on Desert Island Discs.  He certainly didn't seem to be packing up on life at retirement age! Someone you hay fever sufferers may be interested in.

Philippa Bond ● 2388d

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/20/william-frankland-obituary

Philippa Bond ● 2388d

We can analyse figures from every angle but the reality it that given this virus is the first pandemic for 100 years the numbers are not as terrifying that they were back then thank goodness. If our first class scientists manage to find a vaccine fast 👏👏👏👏 oxford starting human trials on Thursday it might not work but an amazing achievement to a matter of weeks.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2388d