Forum Topic

Good outcome would be under 20,000 deaths from coronavirus

The health chief says a good outcome for UK would be Under 20,000 deaths from coronavirus.  This is an astonishingly high and terrifying figure in comparison to other countries. I don’t understand the reasoning behind this figure.

Sean Wales ● 2412d40 Comments

Yes you are right there, They do everything to keep people of the street, Boris will send a letter to every household to tell us stronger measures are imminent, what a waste of money, there is no way to escape the relentless order to stay indoors. The problem is our health system was not even close to be ready for something like this and now they try to get people into hysteria while the NHS staff is working themselves to exhaustion,  most other countries health-system was a bit more prepared, but even Italy does not have this death-toll Whoever hasn't got the message yet wont change their ways anyway, so be careful, but don't get hysterical

Silvia Kinner ● 2412d

I think in percentage terms of the total population (66mn) it would be viewed as very low. But you're right, it is still an awfully big number. 

Rob Reynolds ● 2412d

If we assume a 3 month period, then 20,000 equates to about 6,350 deaths per month. The UK average monthly mortality rate is approx. 45,000. Most of the fatalities are of the elderly, many of whom may have been dying anyway; so the figures reported don't necessarily represent 'additional' deaths over the same, or similar, period.

Michael Brown ● 2412d

20,000 also equates to about 0.0003% of the UK population, so the destruction of the economy over this is questionable.

Michael Brown ● 2412d

Why is the death rate in Germany rather low compared with confirmed cases? Why does Sweden and Finland have considerable less cases despite no lock-downs? As the UK starts testing mores the number of  confirmed cases will go up and will be an excuse for every kind of measures, but don't forget that cases were already there and is not necessarily proof of an explosion of the infection, have some common sense

Silvia Kinner ● 2412d

Because it's a scam, Silvia.

Michael Brown ● 2412d

Silvia - Germany has done proportionally more testing and has tested people who are not showing symptoms so this is probably why their death rate appears lower than in the UK. I am in no way an expert but the population density in Sweden and Finland is lower than that if the UK. It is not surprising that the problem is worst in a crowded metropolitan area like London.

Cllr Sam Hearn ● 2412d

I heard on the radio this morning that 10 planes from New York, the USA's hotspot, arrived in the UK yesterday, without passengers even having a temperature test on arrival. To think that many of them would have used public transport in the UK is frightening. While people walking for exercise in the Peak District are being told to  go home. How crazy can you get?

Roger Talbot ● 2412d

Heathrow Ltd say on their website that they are following Public Health England's (PHE) advice on temperature checks. According to Heathrow PHE says that clinal advice and research evidence does not support the efficacy of temperature checks. La Guardia is partially closed.

Cllr Sam Hearn ● 2411d

20,000 is 0.03% .without the partial lockdown the best available modelling say 250,000 or 0.4%. If every ICU bed is occupied with Covid-19 patients as it would be in the 250,000 scenario, many people with otherwise treatable conditions would also die. On balance the Government has made the right call.

David McLoughlin ● 2411d

You are right, David, 0.03%, and I think rounding up to 0.04% is a reasonable example to illustrate without lockdown; but what about the effect on industry and jobs? This certain recession we’ve volunteered for will, arguably, have a far greater impact on peoples’ lives, including their health and, in turn and time, mortality rates.

Michael Brown ● 2411d

Assuming it’s reliable this website has some useful statistical information:-https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/If you look at the deaths per million of population column for the various countries and multiply by our population then 20000 does look like a lot of deaths. But then apart from China I suppose deaths are still rising in most countries.

Michael David Rowe ● 2411d

My guess is that, when we look back in a year’s time, mortality rates won’t have been notably higher in 2020 than in previous years, but we will be struggling greatly for allowing businesses and the economy to be to destroyed.

Michael Brown ● 2411d

I am afraid it is simple maths.  It takes 2 weeks minimum for a strict lock down to have an effect on death rates based on data from other countries. If deaths keep rising at 34% per day that will be 20,000 deaths by the end of the 2 week period, if the death rate slows in the next few days to 25% increase per day it will be c. 12000 deaths by the end of the 2 week period.To respond to another post - Germany has a lower death rate because they record it differently: if someone has a serious medical condition and has CV19 the UK records the death as from CV19 but Germany does not, Germany only records a death as from CV19 if there is no other serious medical condition.  If the UK recorded on the same basis our death rate would be similar to Germany

Justin Stephenson ● 2411d

But there are 'only' c 32,000 deaths to date in the whole world, so maybe the reality is not as simple as the maths.

Michael Brown ● 2411d

Thankyou, Cllr Hearn, but why were'nt they doing deeper health checks if temperature checks were'nt that effective? It's not as if 10 full jumbo jets from New York would overwhelm an airport.Interesting to see, too, in today's Telegraph, the house journal of your Party (and normally mine) that after Exercise Cygnus, a 3-day dry run fora pandemic carried out in October 2016,  Govt ministers were told 3 years ago that the UK would be overwhelmed by a severe pandemic outbreak with so few critical beds and PPE."Despite these failings" says the Telegraph, "the Govt never changed its strategic roadmap for a pandemic. Ministers now face questions over why the NHS is struggling with a shortage of ventilators and hospital beds".Too bloody right they do.And thank God the attack on Salisbury wasn't wasn't a terrorist poison gas attack on  London or one of our major cities. The bodies would have be burning in piles in  the fields just like the F&M crisis.Slogan for the next general election: "KEEP YOUR HEADS UNDER YOUR BEDS IN YOUR OWN HOME UNDER THE TORIES".

Roger Talbot ● 2411d

Thanks for that explanation, Justin.

Susan Kelly ● 2411d

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK"; as illustrated in the relevant government document:Gov DocThe government’s response was to impose a lockdown.

Michael Brown ● 2411d

2017 Predicted additional deaths in the event of a pandemic in the UK– 750,0002017 Planned for capacity in the event of a pandemic in the UK– 210,000 – 315,0002017-18 Deaths associated to influenza in the UK. All ages 26,408. 65+ 22,2372020 Predicted deaths in the UK  – 20,000Even if the number triples this year it would still be a good outcome. Of course talking about 1% or 0.1% of the population dying is easy when it is numbers. Looking into 60,000 people’s eyes and telling them, your number 1, your number 2, ect, is a very different thing. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-fluhttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

Colin Potter ● 2411d

That's convenient but why are some of the countries who got it first so keen on them then?  Doesn't Singapore have residents taking their own temperature regularly?https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/singapore-was-ready-for-covid-19-other-countries-take-note/?comments=1

Philippa Bond ● 2411d

Sadly the maths is pretty simple, but with one very important caveat.  Essentially the death toll follows a standard bell curve, and we are/were following the up slope of the bell curve. The really big caveat is that we do not know what the shape of the bell curve for the UK will end up looking like. If we follow countries like Italy then the numbers of deaths will be very large but it we end up with a relatively flat bell curve that has a relatively short duration the numbers will be much smaller.Adding to the things that we do not know is where we are on the UK bell curve, are we still on the up curve or is Sunday's death toll the start of a trend where the curve is already flattening. We should not read too much into a single days figures because that could be a lucky day. My hope is that because the number of new cases is showing a decline for the last 3 days we may be seeing the start of the flattening out.  But the key take away is that nobody can be certain, we will only know once the pandemic has abated - and even that assumes no second wave later in the year

Justin Stephenson ● 2411d

SK: "Why is the death rate in Germany rather low compared with confirmed cases?"Germany is testing far more people than eg the UK. They test at the first sign of symptons, whereas we advise people just to stay at home and only test if/when admitted to hospital. All of which means that we actually have many more cases than we are confirming, which reduces the actual death rate.In addition, they have acted more quickly and with greater medical provision (ventilators etc). I suspect that this means more people admitted to hospital with serious symptoms may be being saved.P.S. Ignore that idiot Brown.

Richard Cathcart ● 2411d

Germany also has in the region of five times the number of intensive care beds per capita compared to the UK. Somewhat gloomily Italy is about double the UK.

Paul Campbell ● 2411d

MB: "As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK"; as illustrated in the relevant government document: Gov DocThe government’s response was to impose a lockdown."The reason COVID-19 was re-classified is simple. Suspected cases of "high consequence" diseases are required to be referred for treatment to a few specialised centres for contagious diseases throughout the UK.It is simply impossible for those centres to treat all the Covid-19 cases, so now under this re-classification they may be taken to the nearest hospital.All of which you could have found with a few simple further enquiries, had you not been in such a rush to "prove" your latest bonkers claim.

Richard Cathcart ● 2411d

Evidence to support your claim please that the reason for re-classification of the severity of Covid-19 and its infection rate is to enable sufferers to visit a nearby hospital. Thank you..

Michael Brown ● 2411d

I've read the postings and the debate about mortality.It is truly tragic that such numbers should die but being, personally, in one of the "vulnerable" groups it's a probability I have to accept.I'm reminded of a quote by Stalin "One death is a tragedy, 50,000 is a statistic"

Jeffrey Cope ● 2411d

Richard, don't bother.  Not going to make an iota of difference to this paranoid weirdo - or alternatively attention deficit disorder idiot.

Claire Moran ● 2411d

CM: "Richard, don't bother.  Not going to make an iota of difference to this paranoid weirdo - or alternatively attention deficit disorder idiot."Thank you Claire. I appreciate that nothing one can say to this weirdo will make any difference to him.But my post was for the benefit of others who don't know his history of bonkers theorising, who could take his post at face value and begin to wonder whether there mightn't just be something in what he says.

Richard Cathcart ● 2411d

There were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017/18 - the highest recorded since winter 1975/76, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

Sean Wales ● 2411d

You've got until 9pm this evening.

Michael Brown ● 2411d

Your time is up, Cathcart. You’re a fraud; a compulsive liar and fraud - exposed again.

Michael Brown ● 2410d

Maybe there is something in what is being said, I don’t agree with the conclusions, but at least Michael is asking the questions. I watched 45 minutes of David Icke that Michael posted the other day, there is a lot of rubbish with a few truths making it difficult to tell which is which. There are a few bits worth repeating, the idea of eliminating cash and having one world currency is something that is discussed by academics as well as conspiracy theorists. BBC did a series called “Billion dollar deals and how they changed the world, episode 2, Money.” It is worth watching if you want a different view of the same subject.The world military games in Wuhan 2019 and Trumps claim that China lied and tried to cover up the outbreak are the perfect ingredients for conspiracy theories. A known fact disputed by government, giving you a choice of believing Trump and the conspiracy theories or believing the Chinese Government. The Chinese Government are not known for always being truthful, but the only other option is that Trump and the conspiracy theorists are telling the truth. The thing they fail to factor in is hindsight and the fact that humans are stupid, we don’t all know everything, we make mistakes and get things wrong sometimes.David Icke mentioned “No such thing as a coincidence” and put a dark and sinister twist on it. I came across the same phrase 20+ years ago in a booked called The Celestine Prophecy where it was explained as a good thing. The hum in my ears has been getting louder recently, but I think it is tinnitus and not the Prophecy!? 

Colin Potter ● 2410d

MB: "Your time is up, Cathcart. You’re a fraud; a compulsive liar and fraud - exposed again."So you're setting time limits now? Well I'm sorry that I've got other things to do occasionally. Anyhow, whether on time or a couple of hours late, here is my reply.HMG's Guidance Notes (October 2018 Version) clearly stated Public Health England's protocol for High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID's):"Once an HCID has been confirmed by appropriate laboratory testing, cases in England should be transferred rapidly to a designated HCID Treatment Centre. Occasionally, highly probable cases may be moved to an HCID Treatment Centre before laboratory results are available.Contact HCIDsThere are 2 principal Contact HCID Treatment Centres in England:    the Royal Free London High Level Isolation Unit (HLIU)    the Newcastle Royal Victoria Infirmary HLIU.Further support for managing confirmed contact HCID cases is provided by the Royal Liverpool Hospital and the Royal Hallamshire Hospital, Sheffield. Airborne HCIDsThere are 4 interim Airborne HCID Treatment Centres in England. Adult and paediatric services are provided by 6 NHS Trusts:    Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust (adult and paediatric services)    Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, with a paediatric service provided by Imperial College Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust    Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospitals NHS Trust, with a paediatric service provided by Alder Hey Children’s NHS Foundation Trust    Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (adult and paediatric services)"www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#infection-prevention-and-control-in-healthcare-settingsTherefore with just four airborne HCID treatment centres in the whole of England, it was utterly impractical to require all COVID-19 cases to be referred there, hence the downgrade of the disease to allow cases to be sent to the nearest hospital.Meanwhile, while you demand replies with an arbitrary time limits of a few hours, how long do you need to reply to my previous Yes/No query of you?You know, when I asked you months back whether you accept the commonly agreed narrative that around 6m Jews (and others were murdered by the Nazi's in The Holocaust?The clock is ticking...

Richard Cathcart ● 2410d

I have found that most of the big names in the conspiracy world are controlled opposition, and they use different techniques to cover up the truth, or tell the truth about one conspiracy to gain credibility in order to steer people in the wrong direction about another conspiracy. In respect of David Icke, whatever one says about him, he is no fool. He is logical and well informed. With regard to the ‘lizard/reptile’ stuff, he’s either miles ahead of us all or he works for the other side (controlled opposition) and largely tells the truth in order to bring ridicule to the truth, and provide a tool for mainstream ‘journalists’ to use to ridicule the truth; so worth listening to.

Michael Brown ● 2410d

So you can reply to trainee conspiracist Colin Potter with a load of old cobblers within 20 minutes-odd, but you refuse to confirm or deny that you are a Holocaust Denier even after months of being asked?We can safely take it that you are, otherwise you'd want to dispel any possible doubt or suspecion just like any decent human being.Meanwhile, I have supplied my link to show exactly why COVID-19 has been downgraded from a HCID, yet you remain silent.Again.

Richard Cathcart ● 2410d

30+ years of learning all about that stuff and I am still only a trainee. You’ve made the point quite well about the downgrade, quite often there is a small detail that is left out that changes things, but everyone is guilty of that whether it is intentional or not. Having read the government report on respiratory viruses I found a small detail that would change the message about visiting the doctors/hospital. Including the detail would be more likely to cause panic than inform, so it is better that they do not tell everyone about the guess work. Knowing that small details can change the statement, like you have done, is it not worth looking at all the statements to see if there is a bit of the detail missing?We are told not to believe the newspapers because they have an agenda, on that basis why believe anything as most people, governments, scientist and money makers also have an agenda.

Colin Potter ● 2407d

MB: "My guess is that, when we look back in a year’s time, mortality rates won’t have been notably higher in 2020 than in previous years"Although he seems to have gone a bit quiet on this particular issue just recently, Brown has frequently claimed that these Covid deaths aren't happening; that such deaths as are occurring are from something else; and that the present overall death rate is unchanged, or even lower than usual.Well surprise, surprise, the figures are beginning to come in. And as the BBC reports:"If you look at all deaths in a country, irrespective of cause, you will capture the deaths missed by lab testing, the misdiagnosed deaths and the deaths caused by the strain the virus puts on our society.Of course, you'll capture the heart attacks and car accidents that might have happened anyway. But the total number of deaths registered in a week normally follows a predictable pattern.It has shot up since the end of March, running far higher than the previous weeks or what would be expected at this time of year. That number has fallen in recent weeks but we're still seeing more deaths than would be expected at this time of year. Adding the weekly excess up over the weeks of the epidemic and it comes to just over 50,000 by 1 May, higher than either the number of death registrations that mention Covid-19 or the UK government's daily count."(More here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52623141 )Remember too that the death rate from influenza over the winter months can vary widely from year to year. This results from a number of factors, with cold weather being a major one. Yet we have just had one of the mildest winters on record, with large parts of the country not seeing any frost, ice or snow.How much worse might things have been in our hospitals and care homes had we had a bad flu winter on top of Covid-19?

Richard Cathcart ● 2367d

Sorry Richard, the facts of coronavirus are bad enough. Do we really need to start speculating about how much worse things MIGHT have been because winter 'flu, if it had been an epidemic?Let's deal with the facts in front of us for the present.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2367d

Sorry, but Brown has been claiming that the overall death rate is if anything, lower than normal (therefore Covid is a "hoax" etc).I'm merely pointing out that the overall death rate is already much higher than normal (a fact), and that in a year when winter flu deaths were lower than usual (also a fact).I don't see how that is blurring the picture; rather it seems to me to be providing useful additional context.

Richard Cathcart ● 2367d

This, as I know from my own experience, is futile. Presenting facts and clear evidence to Brown is a waste of time. He does think about or acknowledge facts. He gets his adolescent thrills from conspiracy speculation. It’s the “oooh, they’re all out to get us” claims that get him up in the morning. Or afternoon or evening. When facts become bothersome he will first ignore them and then challenge the source data. Of course he is wrong in every aspect of his predictions about this pandemic. The fatality rate? Wildly out. The presence of military on the streets? A few sqaddies helping with virus testing ain’t tanks at every crossroad. The need to crowd fund a millionaire wasting everyone’s time in a legal challenge to lockdown? Enough said. Brown is an arch gullible idiot. Demonstrating that to him won’t make not an idiot. Having said all that I still reserve the right to highlight his idiocy.

Alan Clark ● 2367d