Forum Topic

Covid-19. Rate of increase

Tuesday 51 cases of Covid in UK. 87 on Wednesday. =70% increase. If virus takes 14 days to manifest from date of infection, and 70% daily increase is maintained, there'll be 146,489 cases in a fortnight.

Ken Munn ● 2436d16 Comments

Out of 60 odd million...

Ann Haddleton ● 2436d

More like 70 odd million.

Keith Iddon ● 2436d

Its not the numbers but the impact. Pupils have exams coming up in the next few weeks while daily lives for all could be impacted. All depends on action that is taken over the coming weeks.

Julian Pavey ● 2436d

Don't worry it should hit 50 odd million by JuneGood luck

Richard Potts ● 2436d

I'll have a tenner with you Ken that your wrong.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2436d

Do you want to revise your figures, Ken?

Jeffrey Cope ● 2424d

Ken loves a panic.

Viv Griffiths ● 2424d

Ken is never wrong

Paul Fisher ● 2424d

No doubt that the figure of the affected and dying will get worse before they get better - possibly at least 4 months.  We will just have to cope, we really have no option.  Definitely over 70ties at high risk must stay home in isolation and friends will be needed to arrange shopping and cleaning etc.  Fit and well over 70ties should join everyone else and abide by all the hygiene rules and avoid hot crowded places.    Why can't "carers", includes family member, cleaner as well as the person who comes in to help with washing, dressing, be tested for the virus.  It's the only wy to ensure germs aren't carried into the home.Finally is Andy Pearce OK?  He usually posts a lot but have not seen anything from him for a while.  Hope he is safe and being looked after.

Jennifer Selig ● 2424d

Not especially. Govt seems to have accepted that if it had continued with its 'herd immunity' policy it would have resulted in 250,000 deaths.

Ken Munn ● 2424d

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

Ken Munn ● 2424d

I've put this on another thread but it fits here too:As Italy, Spain, Germany and France have clocked up 53,866 confirmed cases and 2,823 deaths between them (average 13,466 confirmed cases and 71 deaths) and the UK having 1,543 confirmed cases and 55 deaths it appears that no-one knows what to do.  It’s going to be impossible to judge until the whole darn thing is over so why the premature argument?

Viv Griffiths ● 2424d

Keep up the guesswork Ken. 250,000 now against 55 actual.Scaremongering and nothing constructive.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2424d

Guesswork? It's all guesswork. The government (if you can call it that) was estimating that 40 million of us would need to catch it  and recover to reach 'herd immunity' level. And it wanted us to do it quickly - hence no lockdown, until Imperial pointed out the terrible price we'd pay. Now, as of yesterday, it's trying to slap the brakes on. But in the meantime it lost several days which might prove to have been critical.And as to actual numbers, no one knows because the government knee-capped testing.

Ken Munn ● 2424d

Jeffery, well said !

Loraine Pemberton ● 2424d

If as you concede it's all guesswork why do you continue to with your projections (147,000 originally, now 250,000)?

Jeffrey Cope ● 2424d