Using the govt's own figures, the UK exports £177bn of goods to non-EU countries. It seems that 40% of that, about £70bn, goes through LHR. Meantime £172bn of goods are exported to the EU. Presumably most not through the airport. In a Brexit world, a perfect trade agreement with the EU is increasingly unlikely. So the £172bn figure to the EU will decrease somewhat. The UK might address this by moving even more to services as exports, or by seeking to increase value and volume of goods exported to non-EU countries. Both require travel to secure and manage such exports - and both require flights to deliver such exports. Either way, more flights to non-EU countries will be needed. This is a compelling Brexit driven argument for increasing airport capacity.Of course, some things need clarification: I am not personally in favour of LHR expansion; increased capacity does not have to come only from LHR; the increased demand for airport capacity is likely even without Brexit (just not so acute, urgent and critical for the UK economy).
Alan Clark ● 2441d