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Yet more illustrations of the fallacious thinking used now to defend Brexit.  When presented by a member of the public it is just stupid. But when adopted by the Government it is criminally irresponsible. When before in the history of any state has the Government actively and aggressively pursued a policy that would make the country substantially poorer?The "all economic forecasts are wrong" is complete and utter Horlicks.Economic forecasting is based on known cause and effect, with inevitably a thin overlay of opinion.  The point of a forecast is not to precisely predict the future, but to enable a sensitivity analysis to be carried out for given policies or scenarios.  "If I do "A" this will be the overall impact, whereas if I do "B" this will be the impact"Every day well run businesses prepare business plans to test the potential effect of different outcomes on their business - e.g.  "what will be the impact on my business if interest rates go up 2% and the £ drops 5%" so that they can plan accordingly against different likely and less likely scenarios.So I know, for example, with a high degree of certainty;1  Inward investment into the UK has dropped substantial to what it would have been (in fact I know this as an absolute fact because part of my day job is bringing investment into the UK, and many  investors have said that they will not now invest because of Brexit). The impact of this takes a few years to feel.2. 40%+ of UK trade is with the EU. At the moment this is tariff (and just as importantly non-tariff barrier) free. Post Brexit This will suffer a substantial drop, or increase in costs.3. The UK is predominantly a service economy, with particular strength in the financial services sector. A great part of that business relies on the "passporting Directives'that allow banks, insurance companies, fund managers etc to freely offer services or set up offices across the EU (and the other EEA countries).  This is why so many financial services companies are now planning to move part of their operations abroad. I could go on and on. So, frankly, anyone who says "we just don't know" it talking out of their hat.  Yes we do, and those of us at the sharp edge of it can see it happening before out eyes (and in my case paid by clients to help it happen).Which all begs the question, which had been asked on this forum and elsewhere ad nauseam. IF BREXIT IS SUCH A GOOD IDEA GIVES US ONE, JUST ONE, EVIDENCE BASED REASON WHY. (Yes - I am shouting).Mr Riley - you demonstrate the problem with Breixt thinking. Your best justification for Brexit is "we just don't know".  Even if you were correct, that alone would be a reason not to go ahead. But we DO know.

T P Howell ● 2786d

Forecasts which prove to be inaccurate do not equate to outright lies, furthermore much of the immediate shock was ameliorated by Mark Carney steadying the ship whence all around him had fled and looking at what's happening now, I would say that the predictions were not so much inaccurate as premature. In addition I would suggest the nations prosperity depends marginally more on not unilaterally cutting itself off *overnight* from its biggest export market, and adopting a course of action that has seen a flight of capital some £1.2 trillion and counting in the direction of the eurozone. Had brexit been overwhelmingly "the will of the people" it would have seen the conservatives returned with a thumping majority in 2017. So, you have a marginal referendum result which the public decided should be enacted by a minority government adopting a policy which is undeliverable without causing serious economic damage. We are "led" by a PM who's support for remain was so lukewarm as to be barely noticeable, we are on our *third* ardent brexitard brexit minister and had one of the leave campaigns most prominent figures as foreign minister, until he realised it was a bit too much like hard work & flounced off. The leave side in government has been grossly overrepresented when compared with the margin of "victory", and the 48% disenfranchised & ignored when not being blamed for the impossible, not, er, being possible. Had there been a competent opposition brexit would have been dead over a year ago, the fact that we are still lumbering towards the cliff edge speaks volumes about the quality of our elected representatives of whatever political stripe.Your final sentence is a nonsensical, hysterical attempt at blame shifting; it's the equivalent of blaming your next door neighbour for you not winning the lottery, because he didn't believe in the numbers you chose, or asking to have your head removed consistent with staying alive. An unworkable policy does not become spun gold just because you really really believe in it. See also: fairies.

Huw Burford-Taylor ● 2785d

"I voted to remain." Looking at your posts on here so far, I'm calling bullshit on that one old boy, it's about as believable as me coming out as a brexitard cheerleader, or Greenhough declaring himself a founder member of the Corbyn appreciation society. If it *is* true all it does suggest is that people can change their minds and supports a remain/ratify vote.The 85% canard is a load of old horse manure. The only vaguely intelligent thing Corbyn ever did was maintain his air of constructive ambiguity re: brexit. As the post mortem into the 2017 GE showed conclusively the overwhelming majority of remain voters switched to Labour in the hope of a soft, or no brexit. Something that he's not going to be able to rely on again.Don't believe me? Have a look at the data produced by the British Election Study they have analysed voter behaviour at every general election for the last 50 years. "But which was the party of Remain? Despite having the clearest pro-EU position and a promise of a second referendum, the Liberal Democrats failed to pick up many more Remain voters than they lost. Instead, Labour, which was already the most popular party in 2015 among those who voted Remain in 2016, scooped the lion's share. Despite uncertainty over its position on the single market, Labour was seen as the best bet by those wanting to keep closer ties with Europe.Not only did it win over a large number of Remainers from the Conservatives, but also from the pro-EU Greens and Lib Dems. Overall, nearly two-thirds of 2015 Greens went to Labour, as well as about a quarter of Liberal Democrats."https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/what-was-it-all-about-the-2017-election-campaign-in-voters-own-words/#.XIZuZWc3Yy8The 85% is a lazy, narrow view, unsupported by the data. One final time, an unworkable policy does not become workable because people "believe" and "get behind it." I think the vast majority of remainers feelings on the subject can be summed up as follows:It has absolutely nothing to do with me.I didn’t vote for it.I didn’t plan it.I didn’t lie about it.You’re not putting that one on me.Own it. It’s all yours.

Huw Burford-Taylor ● 2785d

Andy Riley’s post raises some valid questions about the EU and Brexit – so let’s treat them with the respect they deserve and give a considered, objective, response – point by point.  Not least, because it repeats some of the Brexit myths that have misled people (deliberately or otherwise).The UK did not join the EC in 1972.  It was 1973 (but not a material point, either way).The 1975 referendum was not a ratification referendum (the UK had already joined the EU). The question was “Do you think that the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?”.  So it was whether the UK should stay (not ratifying the decision to join). But this is semantics, and again not a material point.The “declaration” to "progress towards an ever closer union" was not made for the first time in 1982 (the Treaty of Lisbon).  It was in the preamble of the Treaty of Rome in 1957, the original founding treaty of the EEC (as was then). In fact the opening words of the Treaty of Rome were “DETERMINED to lay the foundations of an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe”.  So this is not (as sometimes presented) something new introduced only after we joined in 1972. It is what we signed up to in 1973, and what we reaffirmed in the referendum in 1975.  And it is an aspiration about the “peoples of European”, not about creating a European super state.“If we consider the trajectory of the organisation…”  This is the new approach employed by Brexiteers, not arguing about what the EU is (on the basis that most of the arguments presented against the EU have been debunked), but about what it might become in the future.  A disingenuous argument, based on inaccurate presentations of what is possible under EU law (see the next point).“we see continuous progression towards….”The Euro.  A myth.  The UK cannot be required to join the Euro (despite what Esther McVey have tweeted today – which is just untrue).  The UK (and Denmark) have a legal “opt out” under the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 (Sweden does not have an opt out, but has still not joined). This is now set out in Protocol 15 of Consolidated Version of the Treaty On European Union which starts with the words “RECOGNISING that the United Kingdom shall not be obliged or committed to adopt the euro without a separate decision to do so by its government and parliament,”, and goes on to say at Article 1 to Protocol  15 to the “Unless the United Kingdom notifies the Council that it intends to adopt the euro, it shall be under no obligation to do so.”Fiscal harmonisation. A myth, depending on what do you mean by this. If you mean that the UK is required to adopt the same fiscal policies as the rest of the EU, you are wrong. Article 3 of the same Protocol says: “The United Kingdom shall retain its powers in the field of monetary policy according to national law.” But if you are referring to the European Parliament’s 2015 resolution (supported by the United Kingdom government) on “bringing transparency, coordination and convergence to corporate tax policies”, to combat aggressive tax avoidance you are correct about “fiscal harmonisation”. Personally, I think this is a good thing, as international tax avoidance cannot be addressed by countries acting alone, so coordinated international policies are necessary. You may disagree.The EU army. A myth.  Under EU law, any “operations having military or defence implications” can only be funded with the unanimous consent of all Council members (i.e. of every government). So the UK (like every other country) has an absolute veto.  Article 42 allows the EU to engage in “peace-keeping, conflict prevention and strengthening international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter”. However, it is only permitted to do so where “The performance of these tasks shall be undertaken using capabilities provided by the Member States.”  Whereas some decisions of the EU Council of Ministers can be taken by majority decisions, this expressly excludes any matters with “military implications or those in the area of defence”, which can only be taken unanimously. The Border management myth.  Otherwise expressed as “taking back control of our own borders”.  This is one of the biggest Brexit lies of all.  The UK has full control over its borders (when did you last cross a UK border (except into Ireland) without showing your passport?).  The UK has a opt out from Schengen (common borders) under the Treaty of Amsterdam of 1997.  Our borders are not subject to EU law.  (But, one of the “four freedoms” under EU law is the freedom of movement, of work, and establishment – but not to stay without a job after three months).“So firstly one has to decide whether this is desirable or not and if not, how can the UK best stay out of these elements of unification.”  The best way to say out of these elements is by staying out. The UK’s right to do so is entrenched in the EU Treaties and so a matter of international law. You can put your concerns there to rest.  We have a copper plated, entrenched, legally binding right to stay out of these “elements of unification” that cannot be taken away from us. If this is your reason for supporting Brexit, then please reconsider.Mr Riley also expresses the view that “the nation state is the best guarantor of a peoples liberties”.  Respectfully, I disagree (Spain - dictatorship until 1975, Portugal – until 1974, all the EU members that were previously members of the Soviet block until the 1990s).  The common values of democracy and liberty embedded into EU law (and a requirement for membership – just one reason why Turkey has not been admitted – despite Gove’s out and out lie on the day before the referendum that an agreement had been reached to admit Turkey which was being kept secret until the day after the vote) are very important, especially in countries that do not have such a long tradition of democracy as the UK.  (And as a side note – the argument that we do not need the European Convention of Human Rights (separate, but often confused with the EU) because “we have British human rights” is particularly annoying. Maybe we don’t (but out track record here is not overwhelmingly positive). But many countries do not.  The UK’s membership of a club with those common values reinforces those rights in other countries with a weaker tradition of human rights.“Most remainers I've spoken to seem shy of expressing these, preferring to concentrate on the economic.”  Not me.  I (a self-confessed, rabid remainer) am more than happy to argue the case for the EU based on sovereignty, human rights, consumer, worker and environmental protection, animal rights, social integration and values, security, law and order, free movement, cultural, freedom of speech, etc. Perhaps the reason that some remainers don’t major on those arguments is that ultimately, they are a matter of opinion – e.g. would you rather exercise nationally sovereignty independently, or would you rather leverage UK power within the largest trading block in the world? (etc.).  And these issues are important, but at the end of the day probably not potentially devasting to the UK (although that’s also up for debate if Russia succeeds in weakening the EU through its interference in the Referendum and Brexit).  But the economic argument is overwhelming and irrefutable.  The UK will be substantially poorer (not just “in the short term” as the Brexiteers are now saying (or worse “there will be some short term chaos”).  We will be a lot poorer in the long term.  A “no deal” Brexit will be economically devastating to the UK – no serious economist questions that. And the decline is likely to be progressive and long term. Less money for the NHS, for education, for infrastructure, for pensions, for law and order, for defence, etc. etc.  All the important things.“Trade agreements should not in principle affect sovereignty as such”.  Then you don’t understand trade deals.  A trade deal is binding under international law (even “WTO rules – in which the UK has only very minimal input if you want to talk about sovereignty), and are enforceable against the UK.  Every international treaty requires a state to comprise its sovereignty to some extent (depending on what you mean by sovereignty).  Furthermore, it is cloud cuckoo land to suppose that we will get better trade deals with the rest of the World than we benefit from within the EU (which will terminate overnight when we leave). Trade deals take years, or decades to negotiate (and our current government of second rate incompetents has no chance), and are predatory by nature.  What do you think Trump will demand in return for any kind of trade deal?“I suspect membership of the EU is marginal in affecting skills, productivity etc.”  You could not be more wrong.  People talk about EU workers in agriculture, in coffee shops, Polish builders, etc.  But if you walk around the Canary Warf or “Silicon Roundabout” you will see that a large number of highly skilled and educated workers, adding value to the UK economy, are from elsewhere in the EU.  Of course, we could open up our doors to highly skilled and educated workers from elsewhere in the World (the so called “level playing field” argument).  But do you really think this is going to happen?  The UK work permit rules are Kafkaesque, designed to make it as hard as possible to come to the UK, and send a strong message to the rest of the World “we don’t want you”.  Even the much maligned stereotype of the “Polish builder” is adding value to the UK housing stock and infrastructure through his labour.Whether or not (as you ask) HS2 is a good investment will be irrelevant, and no longer our decision to make, for the simple reason that we will not be able to afford it.“Is the drive to massively increase the number degrees for young people sensible?” Good question, but nothing to do with the EU.“Does the banking system serve businesses well?” In my personal view – no.  But it serves the UK far better as a consequence of EU Directives (for example the Payment Services Directives, promoting “open banking”) then it would on a stand alone basis.The EU and New Zealand are currently negotiating a free trade deal.  Trade between New Zealand and the EU is about €9 billion – only about 10% of New Zealand’s trade.  The EU represents more than 40% of the UK’s trade in goods and services.  The EU is only New Zealand’s third biggest trading partner.  It is the UK’s biggest (by far). New Zealand’s population is less than 5 million – ours is about 15 times the size.  I am not sure that your reference point of wine (where you are paying less than 10p tariff on a bottle – but what that does mean is that, the producer has to charge at least 10p a bottle (out of perhaps 50p or £1) to be competitive) is at all relevant to the UK’s sophisticated services and manufacturing industries.  People sometimes think of trade in goods, but 80% of the UK’s economy is made of services (where tariff and non-tariff barriers are far more problematic, and harder to negotiate away).And we have not “surrendered” our sovereignty to the EU.  The UK remains a fully sovereign nation (hence our ability to leave the EU if we so chose, with or without the EU’s agreement).  We have however agreed by international treaty to exercise our sovereignty collectively, to leverage the collective power of our closest economic and political allies within the largest trading block in the World.Please think again.  The questions you have raised are valid, but all go to show why Brexit is such a bad idea, and founded on myths.  To put it bluntly, you have been lied to.

T P Howell ● 2785d

At the risk of repeating myself (yet again): -"......the referendum was not "binding" or an "instruction".This is absolutely clear, and beyond any question, as a matter of English law.  To state otherwise is to perpetuate yet another Brexit myth, and downright dangerous to usurp the rule of law.The United Kingdom constitution is based on the sovereignty of Parliament (I thought one of the Brexit arguments was about Parliamentary sovereignty).  The electorate cannot give instructions to Parliament.This was confirmed in the 12th Report of Session 2009-10 of the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution (Referendums in the United Kingdom). The Committee included the following recommendation in para 197:“Because of the sovereignty of Parliament, referendums cannot be legally binding in the UK, and are therefore advisory. However, it would be difficult for Parliament to ignore a decisive expression of public opinion.”A marginal majority by a minority of the electorate cannot, by any stretch of the imagination be called "a decisive expression".The UK government’s response as recorded in the Committee’s Fourth Report of Session 2010-11 was:“The Government agrees with this recommendation. Under the UK’s constitutional arrangements Parliament must be responsible for deciding whether or not to take action in response to a referendum result.”This was confirmed in the decision by the Supreme Court (the highest court in the land) in the Miller case (Miller & Anor, R (on the application of) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union (Rev 3) [2017] UKSC 5 (24 January 2017)). (The "Enemies of the People" judgement, which tells you everything you need to know about the Daily Mail).Nothing that you, I, or the Government write on a leaflet can overrule the law of the land."In summary Michael, I could promise to give you Buckingham Palace. It might be a promise, but it's not mine to give so the promise is meaningless.

T P Howell ● 2784d

Cameron's promise of a referendum was his Faustian pact with the right wing of his party to get elected as leader.I understand (but have not seen) a recent television programme which alleges that he offered the referendum in the expectation that after the election he would still be in coalition with the Lib Dems who would block it, but he unexpectedly won a majority.My view of why people voted to leave are (to varying degrees, creating a complicated Venn diagram);1  They were lied to, and conned.  I know many people who feel that they were "had", and nobody likes to be had.2 A protest vote against the consequences of 10 years of austerity, deflected by the age old "blame the foreigners" ruse.3 Good old fashioned dislike of foreigners generally (supported by posters of images of long queues of Arab looking men, Gove's lie that Turkey had secretly been admitted as a member, etc).4  Some people's mindset is just to be "against" things, and those people are hardly ever positively "for" anything (the stereotypical UKIP mindset);5  A widespread misunderstanding as to what the EU is, how it works, and its foundation in democratic principles and structures (illustrated even on this forum).  This is a sub set of point 1 above.6  A legitimate (in my opinion fanciful) view that the UK should ring fence its sovereignty, as a small, independent nation state on the margins of Europe standing like King Cnut against the tide of globalisation, and that it was "alright in the 70s" (or 60s, 50s, 40s - take your pick).The riches of the UK's kleptic colonial era have more or less been spent.  It gave us a head start during the Industrial Revolution and for a couple of centuries afterwards.  But that era of privilege and entitlement has now passed.

T P Howell ● 2783d

Can someone please explain to me why to vote on a deal (now we know what it is) is undemocratic?That makes no sense.As for Brogan's "bullying" post (is he out again), we already have the measure of the man from his previous posts.Unfortunately (or fortunately) we can't have our cake and eat it.  May's "red lines" (No ECJ jurisdiction; no free movement: No substantial financial contribution; Regulatory autonomy: Independent trade policy) means that no deal preserving any meaningful relationship with the EU is possible. But on the other hand, our international legal obligations under the Good Friday agreement means that we cannot have a "hard" border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. So the only other workable solution is for Northern Ireland to remain within the single market (for example within the EEA) and for the "hard border " to be moved into the Irish Sea, so isolating Ireland economically from the rest of the UK.None of this is new.  It was all well rehearsed before the referendum.  But dismissed as "Project Fear" or "False Facts", or by Brexiteer lies about "cake and eat it" and "one of the easiest deals in history".The rest of the EU were very up front and public about this from the outset, and that they were not going to break up the single market to accommodate the UK little peccadillio.  We broke, we have to fix it.I cannot believe  that our PM did not get exactly the same advice from the Civil Service.The problem is her disposition of "my way or the high way". There is no point going into negotiations demanding that the other side concede something that they are incapable of delivering.  However much she (or Parliament) stamp their feet, it's not going to happen.And as for David Davies (and others on this forum's) promise the they EU "always take it to the wire then back down". No they don't, and now they haven't. Macho negotiations get you nowhere , particularly when you make your position worse by starting the clock ticking against you.

T P Howell ● 2782d

This is very far from a given. She is likely only to do this if she can be certain of a narrow loss at worst, rather than (yet) another shellacking, and at best a narrow win. However this is very far from a given, apart from the DUP there are a number of ERG headbangers who won't vote for anything. Add to this the three Tory MP's who left to join The Independent Group & the likes of Dominic Grieve and you start to need fairly significant numbers of Labour MP's to support May's godawful Frankendeal. May's deal if it does go back for a third go remains unlikely to pass, but if it does, consider this:This week you will see the extraordinary sight of Brexitard MPs voting for an international agreement which could keep the UK in a customs union and single market without either an exit mechanism or representation on EU institutions.Take a moment, and gasp at the sheer irony of this. The idiocy, jaw dropping expediency and sheer stupity required, as a bexitard to vote for this outcome. I personally have zero issue whatsoever with this, as I do not want UK to exit either the customs union or the single market, and if we cannot remain, and our moronic government will not seek EEA/EFTA membership then I would hope for the eventual development of joint bilateral UK-EU bodies as part of an association agreement.But, dear god, the long interim will come as nasty shock to Brexitards. It will most emphatically deliver what they falsely and shamelessly duplicitously claimed all along to be already, the UK will become a vassal state *by their own actions*. I can think of few more fitting outcomes for these fools.

Huw Burford-Taylor ● 2778d