Two New MPs for Chiswick?

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Mary Macleod and Angie Bray vulnerable says Lord Ashcroft survey

A new poll of key marginal seats is indicating that, at this stage, Labour look set to win both the Westminster constituencies that include Chiswick voters.

The survey commissioned by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft focuses on key battleground seats across the country.

Mary Macleod in Brentford & Isleworth and Angie Bray in Ealing Central and Acton could be among six London Tory MPs who lose their seats if the predicted swing to Labour takes place. The survey data shows that the Tories are currently 9 points behind Labour in these key London marginals.

The most important change since the 2010 election is the decline in the Liberal Democrat vote. 38% of people who voted for them in the last election in London marginals are now saying they would vote Labour with only 16% switching to the Conservatives.

The challenged from UKIP is likely to hit the Tories harder with two thirds of their voters saying that they would consider voting for them compared to less than half for Labour.

Mary Macleod has the smaller majority of just 3.6% and she won her seat from Labour candidate Ann Keen who had been hit by negative coverage relating to the expenses scandal.

When asked about the poll she said, “2015 is a long way to go yet and I am sure that my Parliamentary colleagues will be fighting just as hard as I will for a Conservative majority. We’ll fight the election on our Conservative achievements – over a million new private sector jobs, falling unemployment, a falling deficit, reformed welfare and reduced immigration.’

Angie Bray responded by saying, " "There are going to be lots of polls between now and the election in 2015, and a variety of outcomes predicted. The only priority for me is to keep working hard for the people of Ealing and Acton."

Both local seats had a relatively strong showing for the third placed Liberal candidate which means that the swing to Labour may be even larger than other seats.

Brentford and Isleworth Constituency - 2010
Candidate	Party	2005 Result	2010 Result	%	Change
Mary Macleod	Cons	13,918	20,022	37.2	+6.5
Ann Keen	Labour	18,329	18,064	33.6	-5.4
Andrew Dakers	Liberal Democrats	10,477	12,718	23.7	+0.7
Jason Hargreaves	UKIP	-	863	1.6	+1.6
John Hunt	Green Party	1,652	787	1.5	-2.1
Paul Winnett	British National Party	-	704	1.3	+1.3
David Cunningham	English Democrats	-	230	0.4	+0.4
Aamir Javed Bhatti	The Christian Party	-	210	0.4	+0.4
Evangeline Pillai	Christian Peoples Alliance	-	99	0.2	+0.2
Teresa Vanneck-Surplice	Independent	-	68	0.1	+0.1
Majority			1,958	3.6

 

Ealing Central and Acton Constituency - 2010
Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Change*
Bray, Angie	Conservative	17,944	38.0	+6.8
Mahfouz, Bassam	Labour Party	14,228	30.1	-3.2
Ball, Jon	Liberal Democrat	13,041	27.6	-3.0
Carter, Julie	UK Independence Party	765	1.6	+1.6
Edwards, Sarah	Green Party	737	1.6	-3.3
Fernandes, Suzanne	Christian Party	295	0.6	+0.6
Akaki, Sam	Independent	190	0.4	+0.4
	Majority	3716	7.9

The overall study is based on over 19,000 online interviews in 213 marginal constituencies throughout Great Britain. Lord Ashcroft says, ‘With two years to go this study is a snapshot not a prediction, but on the basis of this poll Labour would be elected with a large majority.’

According to the results of this survey, Labour would gain 109 seats, and the Conservatives would suffer at net loss of 75. This would give Ed Miliband 367 seats in the House of Commons – a Labour majority of 84. This is a slightly better outcome for the Conservatives than current national polls are predicting.

Lord Ashcroft believes that the Conservative party’s targeting strategy meant it won 23 more Labour seats and 9 more Liberal Democrat seats than it would have done on a uniform swing in 2010. He says had it not been for the Conservative performance in the marginals, Labour would have been the largest parliament and would have continued in government.

March 13, 2012