Chiswick's Covid-19 Infection Rate Falls Significantly

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Local hospitals remain under pressure as admissions yet to peak

Covid-19 vaccination programme continues

The latest figures for Covid-19 in Chiswick offer some hope that the peak of infections may have passed in the area.

Although the figures remain at levels which, a few weeks ago, would have been considered alarming, there have been significant falls in nearly every part of the W4 area in the most recent seven days for which data is available.

The Chiswick North East area saw the number of cases more than half in the week to 11 January and now has an infection rate less than a third of the London average.

Other areas saw double digit falls with Chiswick South East down by 32.1% to 53 cases during the week.

The only area not to see a reduction was Chiswick South West, which includes Strand on the Green, which saw the number of positive tests remain the same to give it the W4 area’s highest infection rate of 631.3 per 100,000 people. This rate is still well below the borough and London average.

The falls seen in Chiswick have not necessarily been duplicated in neighbouring areas with South Acton for instance seeing a rise of 23.5% to 63 cases giving an infection rate of 803.1.

Local boroughs, having seen relatively low infection rates in a London context have experienced an acceleration recently. Hounslow borough has seen a much sharper rise in infections compared to the London average and the latest infection rate per 100,000 is 1104, the ninth highest in the capital. The rate for Ealing borough is 1,096, two places below.

In the week to 9 January, 89,026 cases were identified in London, a rate of 993 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 93,666 cases and a rate of 1045 for the previous week.

On 14 January the daily number of new people tested positive for Covid-19 in London was reported as 9,804 bring the total since the start of the pandemic to 548,116, This compares to a figure of 2,834,341 cases for England as a whole.

Local hospitals continue to report increased admissions for coronavirus and, given the lag between infection and the need for hospitalisation, this is likely to increase even if infections start to fall more generally. Local ICU beds are already reportedly at full capacity. West Middlesex Hospital said earlier this week that it currently had over 200 Covid-19 admissions and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust – which runs Charing Cross Hospital, Hammersmith Hospital and St Mary’s in Paddington – had 308 Covid patients in beds across the three sites as of Wednesday, January 5. Of these, 58 were on beds in intensive care with ventilators – machines that take over a patient’s breathing, often while they are sedated

Since the beginning of the pandemic, figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show that 35 people have died in the Chiswick area. However, this data only covers the period before the end of November when the new strain had yet to have any impact so it can be expected to rise significantly.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) divide the country into ‘Middle Super Output Areas’ (MSOAs) of roughly equal population size and these are used in the publication of infections at a local level.

Covid-19 Cases in the week to 11 January
Area	Cases	Cases per 100,000 (Seven Day Rolling Rate)	Change (%)	Total Deaths (March - November)
Chiswick South West	53	631.3	0.0	5
Chiswick North West	41	604.1	-25.5	6
Chiswick South East	53	591.3	-32.1	5
Bedford Park	34	493.3	-15.0	3
Chiswick Park	38	425.0	-34.5	11
Chiswick North East	27	318.2	-55.0	5

Source: ONS

Map showing the areas from the table above

Hounslow’s Director of Public Health, Kelly O’Neill has praised those residents following the rules and asked them to continue to do so, but she has sent out a strong message to people who are not.

She said, “We are all fed up of being in lockdown, I’m fed up, I’m sure all our essential workers are fed up as well.

“For those people who aren’t following the rules, stop and think. Tell me what information you need, what numbers do you need to have, in order to act?

“The number of deaths we are seeing is increasing dramatically, in December we had about 50 people die, who live in our borough. In January, based on the data that’s reported to me by our registrar’s team, that will be significantly more…

“So tell me, what figures, what death number we need to get to for you to act? Now I know this is stark and people can complain with what I’m saying and how I’m saying it, but my role is to protect the health of the people who live in this borough.

“I cannot do it by myself. We have teams of carers, hospital doctors, people working at the council who are doing the right thing to help you, now do the right thing back and follow the rules.”

Professor Kevin Fenton, London Regional Director for Public Health England, said, “Case rates in London remain extremely high and around 10,000 Londoners were diagnosed with COVID every day this week. This level of transmission is severe, and continues to drive pressure on the NHS, with more Londoners being admitted to ICU and ultimately dying from this disease or having long-term complications.

“As a result, we have more difficult weeks ahead of us. This more contagious variant means we are unlikely to see sharp declines like we did in the first wave, and the longer cases remain high, the more deaths we will see.

“That is why we must work twice as hard to reduce transmission and lower infections. Staying at home and cutting our contacts will stop the virus spreading, reduce cases more quickly and ultimately save lives.”

Tier four restrictions now apply to the area. These are similar to those imposed during the first national lockdown with people being told to stay at home - although travel for work is still permitted.

Social mixing is restricted to meeting one other person from outside your household in an open public space. All non-essential retail will have to close, along with hairdressers, nail bars and indoor entertainment venues.

Support bubbles remain unaffected, as do the exemptions for separated parents and their children

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January 17, 2021